Table 1

Table 1

State transition probabilities used in HEP-SIM model

Transition probabilities*	Value	Range	Reference
Acute to chronic HCV at the end of 6 months	0.78	0.704–0.866	36
F0 to F1	0.117	0.104–0.130	20
F1 to F2	0.085	0.075–0.096	20
F2 to F3	0.120	0.109–0.133	20
F3 to F4	0.116	0.104–0.129	20
F4 to DC	0.039	0.010–0.079	21
F4 to HCC	0.014	0.010–0.079	21
F4SVR to DC	0.008	0.002–0.036	24
F4SVR to HCC	0.005	0.002–0.013	24
DC to HCC	0.068	0.030–0.083	22
DC (first year) to death from liver disease	0.182	0.065–0.190	22
DC (subsequent years) to death from liver disease	0.112	0.065–0.190	22
HCC to death from liver disease	0.427	0.330–0.860	21
LT (first year) to death from liver disease	0.116	0.060–0.420	37
PLT to death from liver disease	0.044	0.024–0.110	37

*All transition probabilities are annual, unless noted otherwise.
F0, no fibrosis; F1, portal fibrosis without septa; F2, portal fibrosis with few septa; F3, numerous septa without cirrhosis; F4, cirrhosis. DC, decompensated cirrhosis; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; HCV, hepatitis C virus; HEP-SIM, Hepatitis C Disease Burden Simulation; LT, liver transplantation (first year); PLT, postliver transplantation (>1 year); SVR, sustained virological response.