Mortality Risk After AIDS-Defining Opportunistic Illness Among HIV-Infected Persons--San Francisco, 1981-2012

J Infect Dis. 2015 Nov 1;212(9):1366-75. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiv235. Epub 2015 Jun 3.

Abstract

Objective: To examine whether improved human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment was associated with better survival after diagnosis of AIDS-defining opportunistic illnesses (AIDS-OIs) and how survival differed by AIDS-OI.

Design: We used HIV surveillance data to conduct a survival analysis.

Methods: We estimated survival probabilities after first AIDS-OI diagnosis among adult patients with AIDS in San Francisco during 3 treatment eras: 1981-1986; 1987-1996; and 1997-2012. We used Cox proportional hazards models to determine adjusted mortality risk by AIDS-OI in the years 1997-2012.

Results: Among 20 858 patients with AIDS, the most frequently diagnosed AIDS-OIs were Pneumocystis pneumonia (39.1%) and Kaposi sarcoma (20.1%). Overall 5-year survival probability increased from 7% in 1981-1986 to 65% in 1997-2012. In 1997-2012, after adjustment for known confounders and using Pneumocystis pneumonia as the referent category, mortality rates after first AIDS-OI were highest for brain lymphoma (hazard ratio [HR], 5.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.98-8.87) and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (HR, 4.22; 95% CI, 2.49-7.17).

Conclusions: Survival after first AIDS-OI diagnosis has improved markedly since 1981. Some AIDS-OIs remain associated with substantially higher mortality risk than others, even after adjustment for known confounders. Better prevention and treatment strategies are still needed for AIDS-OIs occurring in the current HIV treatment era.

Keywords: AIDS; AIDS-defining illness; HIV; mortality; survival.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections / complications
  • AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections / mortality
  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / diagnosis
  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / drug therapy
  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / mortality*
  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • HIV Infections / complications
  • HIV Infections / diagnosis
  • HIV Infections / drug therapy
  • HIV Infections / mortality*
  • Humans
  • Leukoencephalopathies / complications
  • Leukoencephalopathies / mortality
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Pneumonia, Pneumocystis / complications
  • Pneumonia, Pneumocystis / mortality
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Risk Factors
  • San Francisco / epidemiology
  • Sarcoma, Kaposi / complications
  • Sarcoma, Kaposi / mortality
  • Survival Analysis
  • Young Adult