Contemporary real-world outcomes of surgical aortic valve replacement in 141,905 low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk patients

Background: The introduction of transcatheter aortic valve replacement mandates attention to outcomes after surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) in low-risk, intermediate-risk, and very high-risk patients.

Methods: The study population included 141,905 patients who underwent isolated primary SAVR from 2002 to 2010. Patients were risk-stratified by Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) predicted risk of mortality (PROM) <4% (group 1, n = 113,377), 4% to 8% (group 2, n = 19,769), and >8% (group 3, n = 8,759). The majority of patients were considered at low risk (80%), and only 6.2% were categorized as being at high risk. Outcomes were analyzed based on two time periods: 2002 to 2006 (n = 63,754) and 2007 to 2010 (n = 78,151).

Results: The mean age was 65 years in group 1, 77 in group 2, and 77 in group 3 (p < 0.0001). The median STS PROM for the entire population was 1.84: 1.46% in group 1, 5.24% in group 2, and 11.2% in group 3 (p < 0.0001). Compared with PROM, in-hospital mean mortality was lower than expected in all patients (2.5% vs 2.95%) and when analyzed within risk groups was as follows: group 1 (1.4% vs 1.7%), group 2 (5.1% vs 5.5%), and group 3 (11.8% vs 13.7%) (p < 0.0001). In the most recent surgical era, operative mortality was significantly reduced in group 2 (5.4% vs 6.4%, p = 0.002) and group 3 (11.9% vs 14.4%, p = 0.0004) but not in group 1.

Conclusions: Nearly 80% of patients undergoing SAVR have outcomes that are superior to those by the predicted risk models. In the most recent era, early results have further improved in medium-risk and high-risk patients. This large real-world assessment serves as a benchmark for patients with aortic valve stenosis as therapeutic options are further evaluated.