Aortic valve replacement: using a statewide cardiac surgical database identifies a procedural volume hinge point

Background: Expanding therapies for aortic stenosis have focused on high-risk and inoperable patients, suggesting that an evaluation of outcomes of conventional aortic valve replacement (AVR) or AVR and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is timely and warranted.

Methods: Outcomes for 6,270 AVR (3,487) or AVR/CABG (2,783) procedures performed in Michigan (2008-2011) were analyzed using a statewide cardiothoracic surgical database. Hospital and surgeon volume-outcome relationships were assessed.

Results: Independent predictors of early mortality (all p < 0.05) included age, female sex, predicted risk of mortality, and hospital volume, with a hinge point of a 4-year volume of 390 procedures (high-volume hospital [HVH], 2.41% versus low-volume hospital [LVH], 4.34%; p < 0.001). At this hinge point, observed to expected ratio (O/E) for operative mortality after AVR was lower in HVHs for patients with a predicted risk of mortality (PRoM) greater than 4.7%. In contrast, no surgeon-volume outcome relationship was identified, even when stratified by preoperative patient-risk profile. With respect to other measures, HVHs reported lower rates of prolonged ventilation (24.9% versus LVH, 30.9%; p < 0.001), postoperative transfusion (46.1% versus LVH, 59.0%; p < 0.001), pneumonia (6.6% versus LVH, 9.0%; p = 0.01), and multisystem organ failure (0.7% versus LVH, 1.8%; p = 0.012).

Conclusions: This population-based analysis suggests that volume-outcome relationships exist for AVR. The predominant effect on mortality appears based on the setting of the procedure and occurs primarily in the high-risk patient. These results provide an opportunity to review approaches for high-risk patients undergoing AVR, including resource availability and system experience as the spectrum of treatment options expands to transcatheter therapies.