Aim: Arterial stiffness has been reported to correlate with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is easy to measure and has been used as a marker to evaluate arterial stiffness. The objective of the present study was to determine the cut-off value of baPWV for predicting cardiovascular prognosis in a prospective cohort study.
Methods: Four hundred forty patients with essential hypertension were analyzed in study 1 with a mean follow-up of 6.3±0.1 years. Four hundred patients from study 1 who did not have a past history of CVD and/or stroke were analyzed in study 2 with a mean follow-up of 6.4±0.1 years. Stroke, CVD, and death were the primary endpoints.
Results: Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed that 1750.0 cm/sec is an appropriate cut-off value for baPWV to predict the onset of stroke, CVD, stroke+CVD, and total mortality (area under curve: 0.576-0.719). A baPWV higher than 1750.0 may also be a significant and independent risk factor for the onset of CVD+stroke (relative risk: 2.048 (1.176-3.616), p= 0.0113 in study 1; relative risk: 1.920 (1.028-3.634), p=0.0408 in study 2).
Conclusions: The present study indicates that 1750.0 cm/sec could be a useful cut-off value for baPWV to predict cardiovascular prognosis.