Aims/hypothesis: One major objective of the St Vincent Declaration was to reduce the excess risk of myocardial infarction in patients with diabetes mellitus. We estimated the trend of the incidence and relative risk of myocardial infarction in the diabetic and non-diabetic populations in southern Germany from 1985 to 2006.
Methods: Using data from the Monitoring Trends and Determinants on Cardiovascular Diseases (MONICA)/Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) Project in southern Germany, we ascertained all fatal and non-fatal first myocardial infarctions between 1985 and 2006 (n = 14,891, age 25-74 years). We estimated the diabetic and the non-diabetic populations using data on diabetes prevalence from surveys, and evaluated incidence of myocardial infarction in the two estimated populations. To test for time trends, we fitted Poisson regression models.
Results: Of individuals with first myocardial infarction, 71% were male and 28% known to have diabetes. In the non-diabetic population, myocardial infarction incidence decreased by about 1.5% to 2.0% per year. A comparable decrease was seen in the population of diabetic women. However, in the population of diabetic men, incidence of myocardial infarction increased by about 1% per year. Over the whole study period, myocardial infarction incidence decreased by 34% and 27% in non-diabetic men and women respectively (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.59-0.74 and 0.73, 0.62-0.87 respectively). In diabetic women, it decreased by 27% (RR 0.73, 0.61-0.88), whereas in diabetic men, it increased by 25% (RR 1.25, 1.07-1.45).
Conclusions/interpretation: Our results suggest that the St Vincent goal of reducing excess cardiovascular morbidity in diabetic individuals has not been achieved and that the situation in men has actually got worse.