Original Article
Are randomized trials conducted in China or India biased? A comparative empirical analysis

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Abstract

Context

China and India are two emerging forces in undertaking randomized clinical trials. The quality of trials from these countries may affect not just their substantial populations but also their contribution to health policy throughout the world.

Objective

The objectives of this study were to describe and contrast the quality and biases in reports of trials conducted in China and India with a set of “gold standard” trials reported in leading European and North American journals.

Method

A systematic review and comparative empirical analysis of randomized controlled trial reports published in selected Chinese, Indian, and European or North American medical journals were performed. Quality was assessed against a subset of criteria from the CONSORT statement. We compared the rate of reporting of positive outcomes in clinical trials to describe potential bias.

Result

In total, 307 Chinese papers, 117 Indian papers, and 304 Western papers were included. Reports of Indian trials were slightly better than Chinese papers on the trial reporting quality indicators and much better than Chinese papers on reporting patients' ethical issues. However, the gold standard Western trial reports scored considerably higher on all quality criteria. Chinese papers were substantially more likely to report statistically significant results (odds ratio [OR] = 2.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.23–3.94; P < 0.0001). Indian trials reported a similar rate of positive results to Western papers (OR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.69–1.24; P = 0.59).

Conclusion

Reporting of trials in major Chinese and Indian journals falls short of that achieved in the gold standard Western journals we appraised and may reflect underlying inadequacies in the design and conduct of these trials. Chinese trials appear biased and may selectively report positive outcomes while ignoring neutral or negative outcomes. Trialists and journal editors in China and India should adopt the CONSORT reporting guidelines, should ensure that a primary outcome is prespecified and reported, and should ensure that analysis is conducted according to the intention-to-treat principle. Ethical questions in the conduct of trials in China must be addressed.

Introduction

What is new?

To our knowledge, this study presents the first empirical comparison among Chinese, Indian, and Western randomized controlled trial publications. We found poor reporting of all quality measures among Chinese and Indian trials and strong evidence of bias in the reported results of Chinese trials.

The randomized controlled trial (RCT) provides the best evidence on the effects of health care interventions. Reports of RCTs provide evidence for health care providers and policy makers to make decision on whether to use new health technologies in their patients. To maximize the benefits from increased knowledge, a high-quality publication should always report the characteristics and results of an RCT. Previous work has indicated that the methodological quality of an RCT is reflected in the quality of such reports [1], [2]. Through the RCT publications, we can thus evaluate the trial's conduct and quality in developing research contexts.

China and India are two potentially important purveyors of RCTs given their substantial populations. They are also potentially important users of the results of high-quality trials. A search of ClinicalTrials.gov on October 7, 2009, identified that there were 29,919 ongoing randomized trials registered worldwide. China included 641 ongoing registered trials and India 423 ongoing trials, collectively almost 4% of those registered worldwide. This is likely to be an underestimate as many trials may not be registered on the ClinicalTrials.gov site or indeed at any registration site. In addition to investigator-led trials, the international pharmaceutical and device industries increasingly conduct their development programs for new products in lower income countries. Trials from low-income countries may also investigate treatments applicable to that setting that are not evaluated in higher income countries. Therefore, trial quality in low-income countries affects not only the substantial local population but also potentially influences health policy in other regions. In this article, we examine aspects of the quality of the reports of trials conducted in China and India and contrast these with a “gold standard” set of trials published in leading journals and conducted in Europe and North America. A better understanding of the quality of trials is important to both aid current interpretation and inform any future methodological work on the quality of RCTs in those countries. We deliberately chose to include trials published in top Western journals because we considered that these represented “best current practice,” a standard to which trialists can aspire. However, we are aware that this provides a tough comparison for trialists and journals from China and India.

The evaluation of journal articles reporting RCTs may include a number of qualitative indicators. Many of these are captured in the CONSORT statement. In our previous work, we identified that Chinese RCT reports frequently did not present adequate information [3]. We have been unable to identify a similar appraisal of the quality of reporting of RCT reports from India. In previous work, traditional Chinese treatments were invariably found superior to the control intervention in Chinese RCT papers [4]. However, no systematic studies have been done to confirm this assertion, which could be because of a selective consideration of Chinese trials or indeed through a high level of efficacy of the treatments concerned.

In our study, we examine whether reports of trials published in Chinese or Indian journals that were undertaken at least in part within those countries exhibit a high proportion of positive results compared with a “gold standard” selection from high-quality European and North American journals. We examine the extent to which any difference in the rate of positive results in trials may be because of trials examining traditional Chinese medicine treatments (traditional treatments considered mainstream in China but largely considered alternative medicine outside that country) or whether it may be because of markers of trial quality.

Section snippets

Derivation of study material

Relevant Chinese and Indian papers were identified through PubMed, “ISI Web of Sciences” databases, and the Journal Series of the Chinese Medical Association. PubMed includes MEDLINE and OLDMEDLINE (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov, 2006), but many non-English journals are not listed. The Journal Series of the Chinese Medical Association includes 71 journals, which comprise the main core medical journals in Mainland China and additionally the Chinese version of the British Medical Journal (BMJ). We

Results

Among 372 identified Chinese papers, 29 papers were initially excluded as they were duplicate publications. Of the remaining 343 studies, 307 clearly described that their patients were allocated randomly to treatments and therefore were included. Thirty-six studies were excluded as they either were not or could not be confirmed to be RCTs.

Our search for Indian trials revealed 340 reports, identified by the use of the key term “India.” Of these, 124 papers were not Indian trials, 20 papers were

Discussion

We compared Chinese and Indian RCTs with a gold standard set of Western trials from high-quality journals because we considered that there were some important similarities between these two countries. Both are developing countries with very large populations, and they are undergoing rapid socioeconomic transitions. They are also recognized as potentially the two largest markets for pharmaceutical trials in the world, which can contribute important data on medical research and development.

We

Strengths of this study

To our knowledge, this study presents the first empirical comparison among Chinese, Indian, and Western RCT publications. It provides important findings for the interpretation of trials from those countries.

Limitations

We compared Indian and Chinese trials with trials published in a gold standard set from top Western journals. A limitation of our study may thus be that we have not compared “like with like,” although the Chinese and Indian journals included may also be considered the top journals for those countries. Our aim was explicitly to provide a point of reference for trialists and trial publishers in China and India and contrast current standards in those countries with Western journals, which aim to

References (11)

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