We collected data for this Review from Chinese and English language sources. For work in English, we searched Web of Science, PubMed, and Google Scholar. We searched for Chinese sources from Wan Fan database search engine and the Knowledge Network search engine. Search terms were “one-child policy”, “two child policy”, “population policy”, and “China”. We also searched references from key articles by hand.
ReviewThe effects of China's universal two-child policy
Introduction
In October, 2015, China announced that the iconic one-child policy had finally been replaced by a universal two-child policy. This change is highly significant because, for the first time in 36 years, no one in China is restricted to having just one child. In this Review, we examine the evidence for the potential effects of this shift in policy. The consequences are inevitably speculative, but a body of research has developed that aims to foresee the demographic, health, social, and policy effects of the universal two-child policy. Because much of this research is based on the effects of the preceding policy, we start with an analysis of the impact and controversies surrounding the one-child policy.
Section snippets
The one-child policy
The one-child policy was introduced in 1979 by the Chinese Government who considered population containment as essential to lifting China out of severe poverty caused by decades of economic mismanagement.1 Between 1950 and 1970, the population had increased from 540 million to more than 800 million.2 In response, the government introduced the mostly voluntary later-longer-fewer policy in the 1970s, which encouraged later childbearing, longer spacing between children, and fewer children. This
The introduction of the universal two-child policy
Demographers warned of the negative consequences of the one-child policy almost from the outset.45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51 Their arguments centred on the fact that the demographic dividend—ie, the accelerated economic growth that results from a decline in fertility and mortality—was reversing. Soon, the negative consequences were beginning to outweigh the positive. The negatives include accelerating population ageing, the skewed sex ratio, and the decline in the working-age population, which
Effects on fertility
The fertility level after the universal two-child policy is a key factor that will affect population growth, the proportion of elderly people, the workforce and economic development, the sex ratio, public health, health systems, and the environment. But the effects of the new policy may be less than expected. There is now clear evidence that the role of fertility policy is diminishing fast, and that fertility in contemporary China, as elsewhere, is socioeconomically determined.8, 11
Surveys of
Population ageing
The universal two-child policy was introduced principally to address the serious challenges of population ageing, one of the greatest challenges for China in the 21st century. However, in the next 20 years the universal two-child policy will have only a marginal effect on the rapid acceleration in population ageing if no other adequate policy actions are taken. Compared with some industrialised countries, where room is very limited for increasing fertility, raising retirement age, and expanding
Conclusion
Since the onset of the one-child policy massive socioeconomic change in China has led to a low fertility culture. The two-child policy will therefore not result in a baby boom, but rather a moderate increase in fertility. But the many negative effects of the one-child policy will disappear and nearly all Chinese people will have their desired family size. The next step, the total removal of the fertility control policy, needs to be considered sooner rather than later.
In short, in the coming
Search strategy
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