Table 1

Transition probabilities between Markov health states (see figure 1)

TransitionDescriptionSourceAge group (%)
AProbability of minor fallScuffham2.
BProbability of major fallScuffham0.
CProbability of long-term care following major fallScuffham0.00.08.627.4
DProbability of death following major fallScuffham0.
ERecovery following minor fallAssumption100.0100.0100.0100.0
FRecovery following major fall1-C-D99.899.690.771.7
GProbability of death while in careBebbington*20.620.6
HProbability of death from independent livingONS0.
IProbability of return to independent livingBebbington†3.83.8
  • *Conservatively estimated as that applicable to residential care.

  • †93/2450 older adults admitted to institutional care observed over 42 months. As the survival distribution of ‘returners’ is unknown the model conservatively estimates that they occur in the first year only following a major fall.