Adjusted HRs with 95% CIs for heart failure in men and women in the derivation cohort
| Adjusted HR (95% CI) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Women* | Men† | |
| Age‡ | 1.076 (1.074 to 1.079) | 1.069 (1.067 to 1.071) |
| Cholesterol/HDL ratio‡ | 1.04 (1.01 to 1.06) | 1.03 (1.01 to 1.04) |
| Townsend deprivation score‡,§ | 1.25 (1.21 to 1.28) | 1.17 (1.14 to 1.20) |
| Duration of diabetes at baseline (years) | ||
| <1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1–3 | 1.45 (1.38 to 1.53) | 1.29 (1.23 to 1.35) |
| 4–6 | 1.53 (1.44 to 1.63) | 1.47 (1.39 to 1.55) |
| 7–10 | 1.72 (1.62 to 1.84) | 1.49 (1.41 to 1.58) |
| ≥11 | 1.94 (1.83 to 2.07) | 1.72 (1.63 to 1.81) |
| Smoking status | ||
| Non-smoker | 1 | 1 |
| Ex-smoker | 1.10 (1.05 to 1.15) | 1.03 (0.99 to 1.07) |
| Light smoker (1–9 cigarettes/day) | 1.33 (1.23 to 1.43) | 1.34 (1.27 to 1.41) |
| Moderate smoker (10–19 cigarettes/day) | 1.52 (1.38 to 1.69) | 1.35 (1.23 to 1.48) |
| Heavy smoker (20+ cigarettes/day) | 1.74 (1.55 to 1.95) | 1.51 (1.38 to 1.66) |
| Ethnicity | ||
| Caucasian/not recorded | 1 | 1 |
| Indian | 1.01 (0.89 to 1.16) | 0.94 (0.84 to 1.05) |
| Pakistani | 1.09 (0.92 to 1.29) | 0.92 (0.80 to 1.06) |
| Bangladeshi | 0.94 (0.78 to 1.13) | 1.14 (1.00 to 1.30) |
| Other Asian | 0.96 (0.76 to 1.22) | 0.77 (0.63 to 0.95) |
| Black Caribbean | 0.73 (0.64 to 0.83) | 0.77 (0.68 to 0.88) |
| Black African | 0.91 (0.72 to 1.16) | 0.68 (0.53 to 0.87) |
| Chinese | 0.78 (0.47 to 1.29) | 0.41 (0.24 to 0.70) |
| Other ethnic group | 0.82 (0.68 to 0.99) | 0.74 (0.62 to 0.87) |
| Comorbidity | ||
| Type 1 diabetes¶ | 1.38 (1.20 to 1.58) | 1.19 (1.06 to 1.34) |
| Atrial fibrillation** | 2.43 (2.27 to 2.60) | 2.07 (1.95 to 2.19) |
| Cardiovascular disease** | 1.96 (1.88 to 2.04) | 2.19 (2.12 to 2.27) |
| Chronic renal disease** | 1.64 (1.40 to 1.91) | 1.77 (1.57 to 2.01) |
For FP terms see footnotes and figure 1.
*Heart failure model in women included body mass index (2 FP terms −1 −.5), systolic blood pressure (2 FP terms −.5 0), hba1c (2 FP terms −2 −2).
†Heart failure model in men included body mass index (2 FP terms −2 0), systolic blood pressure (2 FP terms 0 .5), hba1c (2 FP terms −2 −2).
‡Adjusted HR is per unit increase.
§The Townsend deprivation score ranges between −7 (most affluent) and +11 (most deprived).
¶Adjusted HR compared with type 2 diabetes.
**Adjusted HR compared with patients without the condition at baseline.
FP, fractional polynomial; HbA1c, glycosylated haemoglobin; HDL, high-density lipoprotein.