Table 1

Transition probabilities

Immediate treatment
		To state
		6/6 to >6/12	6/12 to 6/24	6/24 to 6/60	6/60 to 3/60	<3/60
First 3 months (months 0–2), probability for 3-month cycle
From state	6/6 to >6/12	0.7240	0.2222	0.0335	0.0108	0.0096
Remainder of 2 years (months 3–24), probability for 1-month cycle
From state	6/6 to >6/12	0.8778	0.1163	0.0046	0.0006	0.0008
	6/12 to 6/24	0.2937	0.6243	0.0783	0.0032	0.0005
	6/24 to 6/60	0.0359	0.2355	0.6747	0.0479	0.0060
	6/60 to 3/60	0.0219	0.0146	0.1533	0.7007	0.1095
	<3/60	0.0588	0.0147	0.0147	0.2059	0.7059

Delayed treatment
		To state
		6/6 to >6/12	6/12 to 6/24	6/24 to 6/60	6/60 to 3/60	<3/60
First 3 months (months after drop to state 2), probability for 3-month cycle
From state	6/6 to >6/12	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	6/12 to 6/24	0.3300	0.4993	0.1506	0.0139	0.0062
	6/24 to 6/60	0.0699	0.3049	0.4923	0.1057	0.0272
	6/60 to 3/60	0.0157	0.0927	0.3795	0.4123	0.0999
	<3/60	0.0203	0.0541	0.2432	0.4257	0.2568
Remainder of 2 years (+3 from months after reaching state 2), probability for 1-month cycle
From state	6/6 to >6/12	0.7366	0.2408	0.0139	0.0026	0.0062
	6/12 to 6/24	0.1433	0.7161	0.1341	0.0054	0.0011
	6/24 to 6/60	0.0081	0.1414	0.7369	0.1068	0.0068
	6/60 to 3/60	0.0047	0.0093	0.2018	0.7045	0.0797
	<3/60	0.0380	0.0087	0.0459	0.2985	0.6089