Table 2

Time-series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling results of the impact of austerity-related and prosperity-related events on four monthly suicide time series studied in Greece from 1983 to 2012

All suicidesMale suicidesFemale suicidesAll suicides + potentially misclassified suicides
Abrupt permanent testGradual permanent testAbrupt temporary testAbrupt permanent testGradual permanent testAbrupt temporary testAbrupt permanent testGradual permanent testAbrupt temporary testAbrupt permanent testGradual permanent testAbrupt temporary test
SizeSizeGrowth rateSizeDecay rateSizeSizeGrowth rateSizeDecay rateSizeSizeGrowth rateSizeDecay rateSizeSizeGrowth rateSizeDecay rate
September 1997−0.420.260.422.210.77−0.16−0.130.440.170.990.150.130.130.070.950.580.510.370.080.62
June 2000−1.250.011.072.680.780.050.050.640.180.770.87−1.790.940.710.450.921.380.530.140.88
January 2002−0.44−0.51−0.18−0.380.83−0.37−0.77−0.46−6.62*0.84***−0.28−0.210.532.090.06−1.12−3.410.911.240.45
August 20041.010.510.52−2.670.420.710.270.671.330.820.300.230.590.240.740.13−0.160.640.331.01
October 20081.953.570.784.430.363.24***5.300.652.010.031.23−1.630.320.430.680.140.070.820.041.12
March 201012.310.231.070.280.62−0.80−0.690.4410.700.07−1.30−0.790.480.110.50−3.42−3.020.327.780.69
May 20100.040.100.591.500.75−2.08−1.510.350.150.69−0.82−0.230.780.610.53−4.62−1.870.610.637.28
May 20110.480.440.600.390.95−6.02−6.260.240.010.832.37*4.31*†0.80*†3.430.66−3.81−4.270.400.070.94
June 201111.20***5.870.50−7.680.205.16***10.42*†0.79*†11.86*†0.89*†−3.19−5.990.67−5.680.2210.20***6.540.37−6.300.14
September 20111.241.300.217.330.59−5.35−3.060.758.830.121.311.830.550.400.891.461.650.458.980.47
February 20121.691.390.52−9.680.468.65−3.060.75−9.030.120.980.560.490.141.422.330.121.27−10.340.61
April 20124.642.390.420.161.70*−9.03−9.180.049.81*0.78***0.440.370.430.10−1.716.556.670.01−0.220.65
  • All suicide models: ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,1)12. Q(24 lags)=13.6. Male suicide model: ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,1)12. Q(24 lags)=21.6.

  • Female suicide model: ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12. Q(24 lags=19.8. All suicides + potentially misclassified suicides model: ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12. Q(24 lags)=16.2.

  • Size: numerator coefficient. Growth rate and decay rate: denominator coefficient. Abrupt permanent test: zero order transfer function applied to step. 

  • Gradual permanent test: first order transfer function applied to step. Abrupt temporary test: first order transfer function applied to pulse. 

  • *p<0.05; **p<0.01; ***p<0.001.

  • †The coefficient was statistically significant but produced a poorly fitting estimate of the time series and thus was rejected.