Table 2

Time-series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling results of the impact of austerity-related and prosperity-related events on four monthly suicide time series studied in Greece from 1983 to 2012

	All suicides					Male suicides					Female suicides					All suicides + potentially misclassified suicides
	Abrupt permanent test	Gradual permanent test		Abrupt temporary test		Abrupt permanent test	Gradual permanent test		Abrupt temporary test		Abrupt permanent test	Gradual permanent test		Abrupt temporary test		Abrupt permanent test	Gradual permanent test		Abrupt temporary test
	Size	Size	Growth rate	Size	Decay rate	Size	Size	Growth rate	Size	Decay rate	Size	Size	Growth rate	Size	Decay rate	Size	Size	Growth rate	Size	Decay rate
September 1997	−0.42	0.26	0.42	2.21	0.77	−0.16	−0.13	0.44	0.17	0.99	0.15	0.13	0.13	0.07	0.95	0.58	0.51	0.37	0.08	0.62
June 2000	−1.25	0.01	1.07	2.68	0.78	0.05	0.05	0.64	0.18	0.77	0.87	−1.79	0.94	0.71	0.45	0.92	1.38	0.53	0.14	0.88
January 2002	−0.44	−0.51	−0.18	−0.38	0.83	−0.37	−0.77	−0.46	−6.62*	0.84***	−0.28	−0.21	0.53	2.09	0.06	−1.12	−3.41	0.91	1.24	0.45
August 2004	1.01	0.51	0.52	−2.67	0.42	0.71	0.27	0.67	1.33	0.82	0.30	0.23	0.59	0.24	0.74	0.13	−0.16	0.64	0.33	1.01
October 2008	1.95	3.57	0.78	4.43	0.36	3.24***	5.30	0.65	2.01	0.03	1.23	−1.63	0.32	0.43	0.68	0.14	0.07	0.82	0.04	1.12
March 2010	12.31	0.23	1.07	0.28	0.62	−0.80	−0.69	0.44	10.70	0.07	−1.30	−0.79	0.48	0.11	0.50	−3.42	−3.02	0.32	7.78	0.69
May 2010	0.04	0.10	0.59	1.50	0.75	−2.08	−1.51	0.35	0.15	0.69	−0.82	−0.23	0.78	0.61	0.53	−4.62	−1.87	0.61	0.63	7.28
May 2011	0.48	0.44	0.60	0.39	0.95	−6.02	−6.26	0.24	0.01	0.83	2.37*	4.31*†	0.80*†	3.43	0.66	−3.81	−4.27	0.40	0.07	0.94
June 2011	11.20***	5.87	0.50	−7.68	0.20	5.16***	10.42*†	0.79*†	11.86*†	0.89*†	−3.19	−5.99	0.67	−5.68	0.22	10.20***	6.54	0.37	−6.30	0.14
September 2011	1.24	1.30	0.21	7.33	0.59	−5.35	−3.06	0.75	8.83	0.12	1.31	1.83	0.55	0.40	0.89	1.46	1.65	0.45	8.98	0.47
February 2012	1.69	1.39	0.52	−9.68	0.46	8.65	−3.06	0.75	−9.03	0.12	0.98	0.56	0.49	0.14	1.42	2.33	0.12	1.27	−10.34	0.61
April 2012	4.64	2.39	0.42	0.16	1.70*	−9.03	−9.18	0.04	9.81*	0.78***	0.44	0.37	0.43	0.10	−1.71	6.55	6.67	0.01	−0.22	0.65

All suicide models: ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,1)12. Q(24 lags)=13.6. Male suicide model: ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,1)12. Q(24 lags)=21.6.
Female suicide model: ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12. Q(24 lags=19.8. All suicides + potentially misclassified suicides model: ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12. Q(24 lags)=16.2.
Size: numerator coefficient. Growth rate and decay rate: denominator coefficient. Abrupt permanent test: zero order transfer function applied to step.
Gradual permanent test: first order transfer function applied to step. Abrupt temporary test: first order transfer function applied to pulse.
*p<0.05; **p<0.01; ***p<0.001.
†The coefficient was statistically significant but produced a poorly fitting estimate of the time series and thus was rejected.