Impact of price increase and income constraints on consumption, tax revenue, number of smokers and smoking-related deaths
| Model scenarios | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price per pack | €4.47 | €4.97 | €5.47 | €5.97 |
| Percent increase of price | 12.59% | 25.19% | 37.78% | 50.38% |
| Fall in consumption due to price increase | −5.55% | −11.11% | −16.66% | −22.22% |
| Fall in consumption due to income decrease | −4.99% | −4.99% | −4.99% | −4.99% |
| Per capita consumption level | 1779.84 | 1669.33 | 1558.82 | 1448.31 |
| Per capita consumption deterred | 209.83 | 320.34 | 430.85 | 541.36 |
| Tax revenue per pack | €3.84 | €4.27 | €4.70 | €5.13 |
| Tax revenue per cigarette | €0.192 | €0.214 | €0.235 | €0.257 |
| Total tax revenue (€ billion) | €3336 | €3478 | €3575 | €3625 |
| Incremental tax revenue (€ billion) | €0455 | €0597 | €0694 | €0744 |
| Reduction in number of smokers | 205 650 | 313 956 | 422 262 | 530 568 |
| Smoking-related deaths averted | ||||
| High (0, 50) | 930 | 1420 | 1911 | 2401 |
| Low (0, 25) | 465 | 710 | 955 | 1200 |
Differences in calculations may occur due to rounding.
Impact of price increase shared between prevalence and consumption.
High estimate indicates that 50% of smokers’ deaths are attributable to tobacco use, whereas low estimate indicates that 25% of smokers’ deaths are attributable to tobacco use.