Table 1

Guidelines and risk equations used to estimate 10-year risk for a first cardiovascular event (primary prevention)

Guideline Risk equationDerivation cohortsEligibility for statin therapy†Predicted outcomes
Baseline examination*Age range
2012 ESC1Europe1019–80≥5%(age ≤60)Fatal ASCVD:
SCORE1967–1986≥10% (age 60–65)CHD, stroke etc
2013 ACC/AHA3FHS: 194811 12FHS: 30–59≥7.5%ASCVD:
Pooled CohortCARDIA: 198513CARDIA: 18–30(strong/class I)non-fatal MI, fatal CHD,
Equations (PCE)ARIC: 198614ARIC: 35–745% to <7.5%fatal and nonfatal stroke
CHS: 198915CHS: ≥65(weak/class IIa)
NCEP-ATP III8 9Framingham30–7420% (∼unconditional)Hard CHD:
ATP III1971810% (conditional)non-fatal MI, fatal CHD
2014 NICE4UK: 19931635–74≥10%Fatal and non-fatal CVD:
QRISK2–2013(updated annually)CHD (+angina), stroke, TIA
  • *Year baseline examination started.

  • †Ten-year risk for the predicted outcomes.

  • ARIC, Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities study; ASCVD, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; CARDIA, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study; CHD, coronary heart disease; CHS, Cardiovascular Health Study; FHS, Framingham Heart Study; MI, myocardial infarction; NCEP-ATP III, National Cholesterol Education Program—Adult Treatment Panel III; NICE, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence; SCORE, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation; TIA, transient ischaemic attack.