Number of patients experiencing modelled harmful events at one year and five years per 100 000 patients for nalmefene plus psychosocial support, psychosocial support alone or patients in the ‘no treatment’ arm
| Event per 100 000 patients (95% CI) | 1 year | Difference | 5 years | Difference | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMF | PS | No Tx | PS-NMF | No Tx-NMF | NMF | PS | No Tx | PS-NMF | No Tx-NMF | |
| Ischaemic heart disease | 1186 (861 to 1732) | 1303 (901 to 1995) | 1573 (991 to 2526) | 117 (39 to 271) | 387 (129 to 802) | 5834 (4339 to 8526) | 6494 (4540 to 9979) | 7686 (4841 to 12 202) | 660 (200 to 1678) | 1852 (528 to 3765) |
| Ischaemic stroke | 269 (199 to 393) | 297 (209 to 454) | 359 (232 to 580) | 28 (9 to 63) | 90 (32 to 188) | 1348 (998 to 1973) | 1514 (1053 to 2361) | 1805 (1123 to 2901) | 167 (54 to 439) | 457 (132 to 959) |
| Haemorrhagic stroke | 105 (90 to 127) | 114 (95 to 142) | 136 (107 to 179) | 9 (4 to 17) | 31 (16 to 52) | 427 (368 to 534) | 477 (401 to 624) | 571 (447 to 750) | 50 (25 to 99) | 143 (75 to 222) |
| Liver cirrhosis | 203 (150 to 287) | 244 (175 to 364) | 352 (234 to 533) | 41 (22 to 83) | 148 (83 to 250) | 885 (697 to 1260) | 1092 (851 to 1623) | 1500 (1093 to 2171) | 207 (114 to 407) | 615 (368 to 932) |
| Pancreatitis | 229 (156 to 365) | 288 (190 to 486) | 451 (274 to 766) | 59 (28 to 130) | 222 (115 to 408) | 778 (610 to 1169) | 960 (735 to 1524) | 1358 (961 to 2135) | 182 (91 to 394) | 580 (336 to 986) |
| Lower respiratory tract infections | 918 (687 to 700) | 968 (689 to 706) | 1109 (713 to 732) | 50 (−3 to 10) | 192 (23 to 34) | 2917 (2627 to 2903) | 3256 (2882 to 3266) | 3843 (3319 to 3551) | 339 (135 to 496) | 926 (543 to 809) |
| Transport injuries | 548 (524 to 590) | 720 (681 to 778) | 1109 (1097 to 1119) | 172 (124 to 224) | 560 (518 to 584) | 2515 (2333 to 2980) | 3505 (3248 to 4166) | 5318 (5070 to 5488) | 990 (619 to 1513) | 2803 (2309 to 2979) |
| Injuries other than transport | 3091 (1870 to 5174) | 3911 (2336 to 6566) | 5734 (3339 to 9596) | 820 (418 to 1486) | 2643 (1457 to 4460) | 13 657(9089 to 22 419) | 18 241 (12 125 to 30 474) | 26 483 (16 680 to 41 824) | 4584 (2411 to 9126) | 12 826 (7107 to 20 140) |
| Deaths from serious events | 260 (200 to 442) | 348 (255 to 621) | 493 (332 to 939) | 88 (52 to 192) | 233 (131 to 503) | 1273 (1021 to 2013) | 1491 (1171 to 2461) | 1892 (1393 to 3216) | 219 (117 to 518) | 620 (348 to 1226) |
| Deaths from short-term events | 185 (170 to 215) | 225 (203 to 266) | 270 (237 to 324) | 41 (29 to 53) | 86 (65 to 110) | 1013 (931 to 1149) | 1103 (1010 to 1279) | 1257 (1122 to 1458) | 90 (51 to 162) | 245 (161 to 339) |
| Total number of events | 6549 (5074 to 8524) | 7845 (5962 to 10 381) | 10 823(7962 to 14 489) | 1296 (788 to 2004) | 4273 (2842 to 5950) | 28 361 (23 817 to 38 177) | 35 540 (29 699 to 49 069) | 48 563 (38 527 to 64 212) | 7179 (4244 to 12 654) | 20 202 (13 942 to 27 243) |
| Total number of deaths | 445 (384 to 628) | 573 (479 to 853) | 763 (599 to 1212) | 129 (87 to 235) | 319 (212 to 585) | 2285 (2021 to 3027) | 2594 (2273 to 3595) | 3149 (2634 to 4466) | 309 (181 to 641) | 864 (558 to 1469) |
NMF, nalmefene plus psychosocial support; No Tx, ‘No treatment’ arm; PS, psychosocial support alone.