Table 6

Comparison of the obese-years metric, BMI and obesity duration as predictors of the risk for CVD

Constructs	AIC
Constructs	Total population	Males	Females
CVDs (all types)
Construct 1: level of BMI	43 390	19 227	20 307
Construct 2: duration of obesity	43 379	19 221	20 306
Construct 3: obese-years	43 368	19 209	20 294
Hard CVDs
Construct 1: level of BMI	34 069	15 102	15 976
Construct 2: duration of obesity	34 065	15 099	15 968
Construct 3: obese-years	34 050	15 096	15 955
CHD
Construct 1: level of BMI	29 038	14 355	12 156
Construct 2: duration of obesity	29 039	14 354	12 162
Construct 3: obese-years	29 028	14 351	12 152
CVA
Construct 1: level of BMI	13 575	5211	7147
Construct 2: duration of obesity	13 577	5208	7141
Construct 3: obese-years	13 573	5208	7136
Congestive health failure (CHF)
Construct 1: level of BMI	13 141	5275	6667
Construct 2: duration of obesity	13 122	5263	6663
Construct 3: obese-years	13 104	5255	6649

Each construct was split into 11 categories; 1 represents ‘not obese’ and 2–11 represent deciles of obesity exposure (level, duration and obese-years).
Each model adjusted for sex, age, marital status, education, smoking, alcohol consumption and physical activity.
AIC, Akaike information criterion; BMI, body mass index; CHD, coronary heart disease; CVA, cerebrovascular accident; CVD, cardiovascular disease.