Table 2

Performance of the ‘Risk of Hospitalisation’ model for residents identified as ‘Very High Risk’ and ‘High or Very High Risk’

MeasureCut-off points for comparison
‘Very high risk’*‘Very high risk’* +‘High risk’†
Sensitivity‡0.2980.471
Specificity§0.9810.951
Positive predictive value¶0.4110.298
True positives**46 95074 196
  • *‘Very high risk’ is defined as patients with a predicted risk of hospitalisation of ≥25%.

  • †‘Very high risk’+‘High risk’ is defined as patients with a predicted risk of hospitalisation of ≥15%.

  • ‡Sensitivity is defined as the proportion of those hospitalised who were predicted to be hospitalised (true positive rate).

  • §Specificity is the proportion of those not hospitalised who were not predicted to be hospitalised (true negative rate).

  • ¶Positive predictive value is the proportion of those predicted to be hospitalised who were actually hospitalised.

  • **True positives are the number of residents who were predicted to be at risk for hospitalisation at the predicted risk threshold and were actually hospitalised.