Performance of QPrediction scores on the CPRD validation cohort compared with published results for the QResearch validation cohort
| CPRD | CPRD | QResearch | QResearch | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women | Men | Women | Men | ||
| Statistic | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | |
| QDiabetes-2013 (type 2 diabetes)30 | ROC | 0.846 (0.844 to 0.848) | 0.818 (0.816 to 0.82) | 0.853 (0.851 to 0.856) | 0.837 (0.835 to 0.840) |
| R2 (%) | 49.6 (49.2 to 50.1) | 45.7 (45.3 to 46.2) | 50.8 (50.3 to 51.4) | 48.1 (47.6 to 48.6) | |
| D statistic | 2.032 (2.015 to 2.049) | 1.879 (1.863 to 1.895) | 2.081 (2.058 to 2.104) | 1.971 (1.951 to 1.991) | |
| QKidney-20105 (moderate or severe kidney failure) | ROC | 0.875 (0.87 to 0.879) | 0.88 (0.878 to 0.883) | 0.877 (0.873 to 0.880) | 0.878 (0.874 to 0.882) |
| R2 (%) | 58.3 (57.8 to 58.7) | 57.5 (57.1 to 57.8) | 56.45 (55.40 to 57.50) | 58.29 (55.31 to 61.26) | |
| D statistic | 2.418 (2.394 to 2.442) | 2.379 (2.361 to 2.397) | 2.33 (2.28 to 2.40) | 2.42 (2.28 to 2.56) | |
| QKidney-2010 (severe kidney failure)5 | ROC | 0.839 (0.822 to 0.855) | 0.851 (0.84 to 0.862) | 0.843 (0.825 to 0.860) | 0.846 (0.829 to 0.862) |
| R2 (%) | 51.4 (49.5 to 53.2) | 53.8 (52.6 to 55.1) | 55.39 (52.59 to 58.18) | 56.65 (53.94 to 59.35) | |
| D statistic | 2.103 (2.025 to 2.182) | 2.21 (2.154 to 2.266) | 2.28 (2.15 to 2.41) | 2.34 (2.21 to 2.47) | |
| QRISK2-201428 (cardiovascular disease) | ROC | 0.883 (0.882 to 0.884) | 0.859 (0.858 to 0.861) | 0.892 (0.892 to 0.895) | 0.871 (0.869 to 0.873) |
| R2 (%) | 56.4 (56.1 to 56.7) | 50.9 (50.6 to 51.2) | 58.8 (58.4 to 59.1) | 53.3 (52.9 to 53.7) | |
| D statistic | 2.328 (2.313 to 2.343) | 2.085 (2.071 to 2.098) | 2.443 (2.423 to 2.463) | 2.188 (2.171 to 2.205) | |
| QStroke-20132 (ischaemic stroke or TIA) | ROC | 0.882 (0.88 to 0.883) | 0.869 (0.867 to 0.87) | 0.877 (0.875 to 0.879) | 0.866 (0.864 to 0.868) |
| R2 (%) | 58.4 (58.1 to 58.8) | 55.3 (54.9 to 55.7) | 57.3 (56.8 to 57.8) | 55.1 (54.6 to 55.7) | |
| D statistic | 2.427 (2.408 to 2.446) | 2.278 (2.259 to 2.297) | 2.37 (2.35 to 2.40) | 2.27 (2.24 to 2.30) | |
| QThrombosis-20106 (venous thromboembolism) | ROC | 0.756 (0.751 to 0.761) | 0.765 (0.760 to 0.770) | 0.75 (0.74 to 0.76) | 0.75 (0.74 to 0.76) |
| R2 (%) | 35.3 (34.5 to 36.1) | 34.5 (33.7 to 35.4) | 32.78 (31.08 to 34.48) | 33.51 (31.71 to 35.30) | |
| D statistic | 1.512 (1.485 to 1.538) | 1.486 (1.458 to 1.513) | 1.43 (1.37 to 1.49) | 1.45 (1.39 to 1.51) | |
| QBleed-201413 (upper gastrointestinal bleed) | ROC statistic | 0.775 (0.770 to 0.781) | 0.759 (0.753 to 0.764) | 0.766 (0.758 to 0.775) | 0.747 (0.738 to 0.756) |
| R2 (%) | 44.7 (43.6 to 45.9) | 41.6 (40.5 to 42.8) | 40.7 (38.9 to 42.6) | 36.9 (35.1 to 38.7) | |
| D statistic | 1.842 (1.798 to 1.885) | 1.729 (1.687 to 1.771) | 1.70 (1.63 to 1.76) | 1.57 (1.51 to 1.63) | |
| QBleed-201413 (intracranial bleed) | ROC statistic | 0.808 (0.801 to 0.816) | 0.789 (0.780 to 0.797) | 0.847 (0.838 to 0.856) | 0.812 (0.80 to 0.824) |
| R2 (%) | 51.7 (50.1 to 53.3) | 50.0 (48.3 to 51.7) | 58.0 (56.0 to 60.0) | 53.3 (51.1 to 55.4) | |
| D statistic | 2.118 (2.051 to 2.186) | 2.046 (1.977 to 2.116) | 2.40 (2.30 to 2.50) | 2.19 (2.09 to 2.28) | |
| QFracture-201229 (fractured neck of femur) | ROC | 0.89 (0.888 to 0.892) | 0.872 (0.867 to 0.877) | 0.893 (0.890 to 0.896) | 0.875 (0.868 to 0.883) |
| R2 (%) | 70.6 (70.2 to 71) | 69.2 (68.5 to 70) | 71.73 (71.10 to 72.30) | 70.37 (69.25 to 71.49) | |
| D statistic | 3.171 (3.139 to 3.203) | 3.07 (3.016 to 3.124) | 3.26 (3.21 to 3.31) | 3.15 (3.06 to 3.24) | |
| QFracture-201229 (osteoporotic fracture: hip, spine, wrist, humerus) | ROC | 0.817 (0.814 to 0.819) | 0.768 (0.763 to 0.773) | 0.790 (0.787 to 0.793) | 0.711 (0.703 to 0.719) |
| R2 (%) | 56.3 (55.8 to 56.7) | 49.8 (48.9 to 50.7) | 51.9 (51.2 to 52.6) | 38.20 (36.89 to 39.57) | |
| D statistic | 2.322 (2.301 to 2.343) | 2.038 (2.002 to 2.075) | 2.13 (2.10 to 2.15) | 1.61 (1.56 to 1.66) |
D statistic is a measure of discrimination—higher values indicate better discrimination.
ROC statistic is a measure of discrimination—higher values indicate better discrimination.
The R2 statistic is a measure of explained variation—higher values indicate more variation is explained.
CPRD, Clinical Research Data Link; TIA, transient ischaemic attack; ROC, receiver operator curve.