Table 4

Difference in annualised change in weight (kg/year) (A) and waist circumference (cm/year) (B) in period 2 compared with period 1

Annualised weight change in period 1Difference in annualised change in period 2 compared with change in period 1
Sample sizeModel 1Model 2Model 3
Panel A
Total population33510.34 (0.30–0.37)−0.11 (−0.15 to −0.06)*−0.10 (−0.15 to −0.06) *−0.10 (−0.15 to −0.06) *
Men15030.29 (0.24–0.34)−0.08 (−0.14 to −0.01) *−0.07 (−0.14 to −0.01) *−0.08 (−0.15 to −0.01) *
Women18480.37 (0.32–0.42)−0.13 (−0.20 to −0.07) *−0.13 (−0.19 to −0.06) *−0.13 (−0.19 to −0.06) *
Age
 <5523110.46 (0.41–0.50)−0.12 (−0.19 to −0.06) *−0.12 (−0.18 to −0.06) *−0.13 (−0.19 to −0.06) *
 ≥5510400.07 (0.01–0.12)−0.08 (−0.15 to −0.02) *−0.08 (−0.15 to −0.01) *−0.07 (−0.14 to −0.01) *
Education
 Secondary and trade certificate20730.34 (0.30–0.39)−0.13 (−0.19 to −0.07) *−0.13 (−0.19 to −0.07) *−0.13 (−0.19 to −0.07) *
 Diploma and degree12780.32 (0.27–0.38)−0.07 (−0.14 to 0.00)−0.07 (−0.14 to 0.00)−0.06 (−0.14 to 0.01)
Area-level disadvantage
 Tertile of most disadvantage10960.31 (0.24–0.37)−0.01 (−0.09 to 0.07)−0.01 (−0.09 to 0.07)−0.01 (−0.10 to 0.07)
 Middle tertile11300.40 (0.34–0.47)−0.23 (−0.31 to −0.14) *−0.22 (−0.31 to −0.14) *−0.22 (−0.31 to −0.14) *
 Tertile of least disadvantage11250.30 (0.24–0.35)−0.08 (−0.16 to −0.01) *−0.08 (−0.15 to −0.00) *−0.08 (−0.15 to −0.00) *
Normal weight13420.4 (0.36–0.44)−0.07 (−0.13 to −0.01) *−0.07 (−0.13 to −0.01) *−0.08 (−0.14 to −0.02) *
Overweight13750.31 (0.26–0.37)−0.12 (−0.18 to −0.05) *−0.11 (−0.18 to −0.04) *−0.12 (−0.19 to −0.05) *
Obese6330.25 (0.14–0.36)−0.13 (−0.26 to 0.01)−0.13 (−0.26 to 0.01)−0.15 (−0.29 to −0.01) *
English speaking country of birth31290.34 (0.30–0.37)−0.10 (−0.15 to −0.06) *−0.1 (−0.15 to −0.05) *−0.1 (−0.15 to −0.05) *
Non-English speaking country of birth2220.32 (0.18–0.46)−0.15 (−0.32 to 0.02)−0.14 (−0.32 to 0.04)−0.15 (−0.33 to 0.03)
Never smokers21210.34 (0.29–0.38)−0.10 (−0.15 to −0.04) *−0.1 (−0.15 to −0.04) *−0.10 (−0.15 to −0.04) *
Ex-smokers8940.27 (0.20–0.34)−0.15 (−0.24 to −0.06) *−0.15 (−0.24 to −0.06) *−0.16 (−0.25 to −0.07) *
Current smokers3360.49 (0.36–0.63)−0.01 (−0.20 to 0.19)0.00 (−0.20 to 0.20)0.00 (−0.20 to 0.19)
No chronic disease#19440.42 (0.37–0.47)−0.10 (−0.16 to −0.04) *−0.10 (−0.16 to −0.04) *−0.09 (−0.15 to −0.03) *
Chronic disease#14070.25 (0.20–0.30)−0.12 (−0.19 to −0.05) *−0.11 (−0.19 to −0.04) *−0.10 (−0.17 to −0.02) *
Annualised waist circumference change in period 1
Panel B
Total population33510.43 (0.39–0.48)0.07 (0.02 to 0.12) *0.07 (0.02 to 0.13) *0.07 (0.01 to 0.12) *
Men15030.32 (0.26–0.38)0.13 (0.05 to 0.20) *0.13 (0.06 to 0.21) *0.12 (0.05 to 0.20) *
Women18480.53 (0.47–0.59)0.02 (−0.06 to 0.10)0.03 (−0.05 to 0.11)0.02 (−0.05 to 0.10)
Age
 <5523110.50 (0.45–0.55)0.05 (−0.03 to 0.12)0.05 (−0.02 to 0.13)0.05 (−0.03 to 0.12)
 ≥5510400.28 (0.21–0.35)0.10 (0.02 to 0.18) *0.10 (0.02 to 0.19) *0.10 (0.02 to 0.18) *
Education
 Secondary and trade certificate20730.44 (0.39–0.49)0.09 (0.02 to 0.15) *0.09 (0.02 to 0.16) *0.08 (0.01 to 0.15) *
 Diploma and degree12780.43 (0.36–0.50)0.05 (−0.04 to 0.14)0.05 (−0.04 to 0.14)0.05 (−0.04 to 0.14)
Area-level disadvantage
 Tertile of most disadvantage10960.41 (0.34–0.49)0.13 (0.04 to 0.23) *0.13 (0.04 to 0.23)*0.14 (0.04 to 0.23) *
 Middle tertile11300.32 (0.24–0.40)0.21 (0.11 to 0.31) *0.22 (0.12 to 0.32) *0.22 (0.12 to 0.32) *
 Tertile of least disadvantage11250.57 (0.50–0.64)−0.14 (−0.23 to −0.05) *−0.13 (−0.22 to −0.05) *−0.15 (−0.23 to −0.06) *
Normal weight13420.48 (0.42–0.54)0.04 (−0.04 to 0.12)0.04 (−0.04 to 0.12)0.03 (−0.05 to 0.12)
Overweight13750.43 (0.36–0.49)0.08 (−0.01 to 0.16)0.08 (−0.00 to 0.17)0.07 (−0.02 to 0.15)
Obese6330.35 (0.24–0.46)0.12 (−0.01 to 0.26)0.13 (−0.00 to 0.27)0.11 (−0.02 to 0.25)
English speaking country of birth31290.44 (0.40–0.48)0.06 (0.01 to 0.12) *0.07 (0.01 to 0.13) *0.06 (0.01 to 0.12) *
Non-English speaking country of birth2220.35 (0.18–0.52)0.17 (−0.04 to 0.38)0.18 (−0.02 to 0.39)0.17 (−0.03 to 0.38)
Never smokers21210.44 (0.39–0.49)0.07 (0.00 to 0.14) *0.07 (0.01 to 0.14) *0.07 (0.00 to 0.14) *
Ex-smokers8940.38 (0.30–0.46)0.04 (−0.06 to 0.14)0.04 (−0.06 to 0.14)0.03 (−0.08 to 0.13)
Current smokers3360.56 (0.40–0.71)0.17 (−0.05 to 0.39)0.17 (−0.05 to 0.40)0.18 (−0.04 to 0.41)
Chronic disease†19440.47 (0.41–0.52)0.06 (−0.01 to 0.13)0.07 (−0.01 to 0.14)0.07 (−0.01 to 0.14)
No chronic disease†14070.44 (0.39–0.49)0.08 (−0.00 to 0.17)0.09 (0.00 to 0.17) *0.1 (0.01 to 0.18) *
  • Model 1: adjusting for age and sex.

  • Model 2: additionally adjusting for smoking status, education status, area-level disadvantage and ethnicity.

  • Model 3: additionally adjusting for baseline BMI and diabetes status.

  • *p<0.05.

  • †Chronic disease refers to any of coronary heart disease, cholesterol, hypertension or diabetes at baseline.