Table 5

Impact on premature (U75) CHD mortality count of an improvement in primary care or a decrease in population burden to the median from the upper or lower quartile as appropriate, given the current model

Explanatory variableDescription of changeEffect of an improvement in primary care or a decrease in population burden on percentage change in premature mortality (CI)
Percentage of White patientsDecrease from upper quartile to median—decrease of 5.2% in percentage of white patients−4.16% (−6.24% to −1.56%)
Deprivation scoreDecrease from upper quartile to median—decrease of 10.8 units on scale−18.36% (−25.92% to −11.88%)
Prevalence of diabetes in 2006/2007Decrease from upper quartile to median—decrease of 0.6% in diabetes prevalence−6.84% (−12.48% to −1.68%)
Percentage over 65Decrease from upper quartile to median—decrease of 2.3% in percentage over 65−13.57% (−18.63% to −8.74%)
Percentage of male patientsDecrease from upper quartile to median—decrease of 1.0% in percentage of male patients−6.7% (−10.3% to −3.8%)
Number of GPs/1000 patientsIncrease from lower quartile to median—increase of 0.8 GPs per 1000 patients15.76% (−9.20% to 49.52%)
Hypertension detection in 2006/2007Increase from lower quartile to median—increase of 2.3% in detection−5.06% (−11.27% to 1.61%)
Percentage of patients offered smoking cessation advice (SM02)Increase from lower quartile to median—increase of 2.06% offered advice0.41% (−1.44% to 2.27%)
Percentage of serum cholesterol (CHD08)Increase from lower quartile to median—increase of 4.0% in achieving serum cholesterol target−3.6% (−7.6% to 0.0%)
Percentage of aspirin (CHD09)Increase from lower quartile to median—increase of 2.0% in aspirin treatment0.4% (−3.6% to 4.4%)
Percentage of patients with recalled perception of being able to see preferred GPIncrease from lower quartile to median—increase of 8.0% in patients recalling being able to see preferred GP−4.8% (−8.8% to −0.00%)
  • CHD, coronary heart disease; GP, general practitioner.