Table 6

Cost-effectiveness results*

Cost difference (endoscopy-surgery)QALY difference (endoscopy-surgery)Probability of surgery being cost-effective (20K/QALY)†
Base-case analysis£7033 (3457) (95% CI 869 to 14638) (p=0.030)−0.44 (0.09) (95% CI −0.61 to −0.27) (p<0.001)100.0%
Sensitivity analysis—all cause mortalityAs row above−0.22 (0.28) (95% CI −0.77 to 0.36) (p=0.415)95.8%
Sensitivity analysis—all cause mortality and variation of resource use£1170 (2949) (95% CI −4671 to 7066) (p=0.684)As row above82.0%
  • *Discounted at 3.5%.

  • †Probability of surgery being cost-effective, compared with endoscopy, at a threshold of £20 000/QALY gained, which would be considered cost-effective by NICE.

  • NICE, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence; QALY, Quality-Adjusted Life Year.