Performance of QAdmissions for predicting emergency admissions in the QResearch and CPRD validation cohorts based on (a) the score calculated using the GP-HES-linked data and (b) the score calculated using the GP data alone.
| QResearch validation cohort | CPRD validation cohort | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 year risk score | Cut-off for 2 year predicted risk (%) | Total classified as high risk | Sensitivity (%) | Observed risk of admission at 2 years* (%) | Cut-off for 2 year predicted risk (%) | Total classified as high risk | Sensitivity (%) | Observed risk of admission at 2 years* (%) |
| HES-GP linked data | ||||||||
| Top 1% | 69.2 | 13 406 | 6.6 | 72.5 | 67.5 | 24 753 | 6.7 | 72.7 |
| Top 5% | 35.9 | 67 031 | 24.6 | 53.0 | 35.1 | 123 768 | 24.9 | 53.3 |
| Top 10% | 23.0 | 134 062 | 39.3 | 41.8 | 22.4 | 247 536 | 39.4 | 41.8 |
| Top 20% | 13.4 | 268 124 | 56.9 | 30.0 | 13.1 | 495 072 | 56.8 | 29.9 |
| GP data only | ||||||||
| Top 1% | 56.7 | 13 406 | 6.0 | 65.9 | 65.6 | 24 753 | 6.1 | 66.0 |
| Top 5% | 30.9 | 67 031 | 23.4 | 50.0 | 35.9 | 123 768 | 23.2 | 49.6 |
| Top 10% | 20.6 | 134 062 | 37.7 | 39.8 | 23.8 | 247 536 | 37.4 | 39.7 |
| Top 20% | 12.6 | 268 124 | 55.5 | 29.1 | 14.2 | 495 072 | 55.1 | 29.1 |
*Observed risk is an estimate of the positive predictive value.