Adjusted HRs (95% CI) for emergency admission to hospital for the final QAdmissions model in the derivation cohort. HRs are adjusted for fractional polynomial terms for age and BMI
| Women adjusted HR* (95% CI) | Men adjusted HR* (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Ethnicity | ||
| White/not recorded | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Indian | 1.00 (0.95 to 1.06) | 0.92 (0.87 to 0.97) |
| Pakistani | 1.18 (1.11 to 1.26) | 1.01 (0.94 to 1.08) |
| Bangladeshi | 1.03 (0.96 to 1.11) | 0.86 (0.79 to 0.92) |
| Other Asian | 0.88 (0.83 to 0.94) | 0.87 (0.81 to 0.93) |
| Caribbean | 1.21 (1.15 to 1.28) | 1.16 (1.10 to 1.24) |
| Black African | 1.23 (1.17 to 1.29) | 0.95 (0.89 to 1.01) |
| Chinese | 0.48 (0.43 to 0.54) | 0.43 (0.37 to 0.49) |
| Other | 1.03 (0.99 to 1.08) | 0.95 (0.90 to 1.00) |
| Strategic Health Authority (SHA) | ||
| East Midlands SHA | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Yorkshire & Humber SHA | 1.09 (1.06 to 1.12) | 1.10 (1.07 to 1.13) |
| East of England SHA | 0.99 (0.96 to 1.02) | 1.00 (0.97 to 1.03) |
| London SHA | 0.97 (0.95 to 0.99) | 0.91 (0.89 to 0.94) |
| North East SHA | 1.19 (1.16 to 1.23) | 1.16 (1.12 to 1.19) |
| North West SHA | 1.15 (1.12 to 1.18) | 1.16 (1.13 to 1.19) |
| South Central SHA | 0.98 (0.96 to 1.01) | 0.99 (0.96 to 1.02) |
| South East SHA | 1.04 (1.01 to 1.07) | 1.02 (0.99 to 1.05) |
| South West SHA | 1.00 (0.97 to 1.02) | 1.01 (0.98 to 1.04) |
| West Midlands SHA | 1.08 (1.05 to 1.11) | 1.07 (1.04 to 1.10) |
| Smoking status | ||
| Non-smoker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Ex-smoker | 1.13 (1.11 to 1.14) | 1.14 (1.12 to 1.15) |
| Light smoker (1–9/day) | 1.31 (1.29 to 1.33) | 1.36 (1.34 to 1.39) |
| Moderate smoker (10–19/day) | 1.31 (1.28 to 1.35) | 1.40 (1.37 to 1.44) |
| Heavy smoker (20+/day) | 1.41 (1.37 to 1.46) | 1.54 (1.50 to 1.59) |
| Alcohol status | ||
| Non-drinker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Trivial <1 unit/day | 0.85 (0.84 to 0.86) | 0.85 (0.83 to 0.86) |
| Light 1–2 units/day | 0.80 (0.79 to 0.82) | 0.81 (0.79 to 0.82) |
| Moderate 3–6 units/day | 0.82 (0.80 to 0.84) | 0.81 (0.79 to 0.82) |
| Heavy 7–9 units/day | 1.27 (1.17 to 1.37) | 0.94 (0.90 to 0.97) |
| Very heavy >9 units/day | 1.28 (1.17 to 1.39) | 1.16 (1.11 to 1.22) |
| Emergency admissions in the last year | ||
| None | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 1 emergency admission | 2.74 (2.68 to 2.81) | 2.62 (2.55 to 2.69) |
| 2 emergency admissions | 4.44 (4.27 to 4.62) | 4.43 (4.23 to 4.64) |
| 3+ emergency admissions | 7.48 (7.14 to 7.84) | 8.27 (7.85 to 8.71) |
| Clinical values and deprivation | ||
| Townsend Score (5 unit increase) | 1.10 (1.09 to 1.11) | 1.11 (1.10 to 1.12) |
| Most recent haemoglobin <11 g/dL† | 1.30 (1.27 to 1.32) | 1.60 (1.54 to 1.65) |
| Most recent platelet >480† | 1.28 (1.23 to 1.33) | 1.25 (1.18 to 1.32) |
| Most recent LFTs 3 times normal† | 1.44 (1.39 to 1.49) | 1.48 (1.44 to 1.53) |
| Co-morbidity | ||
| Type 1 diabetes† | 2.17 (2.04 to 2.30) | 2.15 (2.03 to 2.29) |
| Type 2 diabetes† | 1.37 (1.31 to 1.43) | 1.33 (1.27 to 1.40) |
| Atrial fibrillation† | 1.32 (1.28 to 1.35) | 1.77 (1.62 to 1.93) |
| Cardiovascular disease† | 1.36 (1.34 to 1.38) | 1.80 (1.71 to 1.89) |
| Congestive cardiac failure† | 1.19 (1.15 to 1.22) | 1.27 (1.23 to 1.30) |
| Venous thromboembolism† | 1.41 (1.34 to 1.47) | 1.66 (1.56 to 1.76) |
| Cancer† | 1.35 (1.32 to 1.37) | 1.44 (1.41 to 1.47) |
| Asthma or COPD† | 1.20 (1.18 to 1.22) | 1.20 (1.18 to 1.22) |
| Epilepsy† | 1.59 (1.52 to 1.66) | 1.71 (1.64 to 1.79) |
| Falls† | 1.27 (1.25 to 1.29) | 1.36 (1.33 to 1.38) |
| Manic depression or schizophrenia† | 1.37 (1.30 to 1.44) | 1.39 (1.31 to 1.48) |
| Chronic renal disease† | 2.10 (1.94 to 2.27) | 1.86 (1.70 to 2.03) |
| Conditions causing malabsorption† | 1.47 (1.40 to 1.55) | 1.60 (1.51 to 1.69) |
| Liver disease or chronic pancreatitis† | 1.54 (1.44 to 1.64) | 1.91 (1.81 to 2.03) |
| Medications | ||
| NSAIDs† | 1.35 (1.33 to 1.38) | 1.48 (1.45 to 1.51) |
| Anticoagulant† | 1.69 (1.57 to 1.82) | 1.61 (1.49 to 1.75) |
| Corticosteroids† | 1.50 (1.47 to 1.52) | 1.52 (1.49 to 1.55) |
| Antidepressant† | 1.66 (1.64 to 1.69) | 1.72 (1.68 to 1.75) |
| Antipsychotic† | 1.68 (1.64 to 1.73) | 1.60 (1.53 to 1.66) |
Final model included age interaction terms.
Notes: Models also included fractional polynomial terms for age and body mass index.
*HRs simultaneously adjusted for all the other variables shown in the table as well as fractional polynomial terms for age and body mass index.
†compared with patients without the condition/medication at baseline.
For women: fractional polynomial terms were (age/10)−2 and (age/10)−2 ln(age); (bmi/10)−2 and (bmi/10)−2 ln(bmi).
For men: fractional polynomial terms were (age/10)−2 and (age/10)−2 ln(age); (bmi/10)−2 and (bmi/10)−2 ln(bmi).
The models for men and women also included interactions between the age terms and prior admissions, type2 diabetes, venous thromboembolism, epilepsy, manic depression/schizophrenia, chronic renal disease, malabsorption, chronic liver/pancreatic disease, NSAIDs, anticoagulants, antidepressants and antipsychotics. In addition for men, there were interactions between the age terms and atrial fibrillation and cardiovascular disease. HRs for these variables in the table are evaluated at mean age in men and women.
BMI, body mass index; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; LFTs, liver function tests; NSAIDs, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs.