Simulation outcomes of no intervention, school closure and rigorous social distancing (School Closure+WR+CCR) scenarios
| Albany model | Madang model | Madang-nnh model | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No intervention | |||
| R0 | 1.5 | 1.88 | 1.74 |
| (1.47 to 1.54) | (1.84 to 1.93) | (1.70 to 1.79) | |
| Illness attack rate | 31.7% | 46.6% | 40.8% |
| (31.3 to 32.0) | (46.4 to 46.7) | (40.6 to 41.0) | |
| Illness locations | |||
| Households | 37.8% | 48.7% | 51.8% |
| (37.5 to 38.0) | (48.6 to 48.9) | (51.6 to 52.0) | |
| Hubs | 32.5% | 30.5% | 25% |
| (32.3 to 32.7) | (30.3 to 30.6) | (24.8 to 25.1) | |
| Community | 27.9% | 20.1% | 22.2% |
| (27.7 to 28.1) | (19.9 to 20.1) | (22.1 to 22.3) | |
| Imported | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1% |
| (1.7 to 1.8) | (0.72 to 0.76) | (0.96 to 1.01) | |
| Intervention: school closure | |||
| Illness attack rate | 16.3% | 42.2% | 35.4% |
| (15.9 to 16.7) | (42.0 to 42.4) | (35.2 to 35.7) | |
| Illness locations | |||
| Households | 42.8% | 53.2% | 56.4% |
| (42.2 to 43.4) | (53.0 to 53.4) | (56.2 to 56.6) | |
| Hubs | 20.9% | 24.9% | 19% |
| (20.5 to 21.3) | (24.8 to 25.0) | (18.9 to 19.2) | |
| Community | 31.8% | 21% | 23.3% |
| (31.3 to 32.3) | (20.8–21.0) | (23.2 to 23.5) | |
| Imported | 4.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% |
| (4.4 to 4.6) | (0.92 to 0.96) | (1.26 to 1.32) | |
| Intervention: school closure+WR+CCR | |||
| Illness attack rate | 5.4% | 17.4% | 12.5% |
| (5.2 to 5.7) | (17.1 to 17.7) | (12.3 to 12.7) | |
| Illness locations | |||
| Households | 42.1% | 67.9% | 67.9% |
| (40.8 to 43) | (67.3 to 68.5) | (67.0 to 68.5) | |
| Hubs | 27.4% | 13.2% | 10.7% |
| (25.8 to 28.8) | (13.0 to 13.4) | (10.4 to 10.9) | |
| Community | 15.1% | 15.2% | 16% |
| (14.6 to 15.5) | (15.0 to 15.4) | (15.8 to 16.2) | |
| Imported | 15.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% |
| (15.1 to 15.7) | (3.6 to 3.8) | (5.3 to 5.5) | |
Mean simulation outcomes of no intervention, school closure and rigorous social distancing presented as percentages and their corresponding 95% CI (presented in parentheses, shaded rows). WR, workforce reduction and CCR, community contact reduction; Hubs represent schools, workplaces and neighbourhoods together; Community represents general community; Imported represents seeded cases.