Expanded programme on immunisation model8 | Estimated number of measles deaths in a cohort of 1000 children | |||||||||

Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 | Column 4 | Column 5 | Column 6 | Column 7 | Column 8 | Column 9 | Column 10 | |

Cumulative measles incidence (%) | Seroconversion from MV (%) | Prevented cases (%) | Vaccine failures (%) | Cases prior to MV (%) | EPI assumption: case death 4% | Adjusting vaccination status^{*} | Adjusting vaccination status and age of infection^{†} | Adjusting vaccination status, age of infection and seronegative 50% protection^{‡} | Adjusting vaccination status, age of infection and seronegative 25% protection^{‡} | |

Age 4 months | 0.5 | 15 | 15 | 85 | 0 | 34 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 8.5 |

Age 5 months | 1.0 | 35 | 35 | 65 | 0 | 26 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 6.5 |

Age 6 months | 2.8 | 52 | 51 | 48 | 1 | 19.6 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 5.6 |

Age 7 months | 6.1 | 72 | 69 | 28 | 3 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 5.2 |

Age 8 months | 9.5 | 86 | 79 | 15 | 6 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 6.3 |

Age 9 months | 14.4 | 95 | 84 | 7 | 9 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 7.9 |

Age 10 months | 18.6 | 98 | 82 | 4 | 14 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.6 |

Bold and italic mark the month of vaccination with the lowest measles mortality given the set of assumptions specified for a specific column.

The estimated number of measles deaths was obtained by multiplying the number of vaccine failures (column 4) and cases prior to MV (column 5) in a cohort of 1000 children by the case death rates as indicated in the following notes:

↵* Assumption: the relative case death ratio is 1/3 for vaccinated versus unvaccinated cases, that is, 4% for unvaccinated cases and 1.33% for vaccinated cases.

↵† Assumption: the relative case death ratio is 1/3 for vaccinated versus unvaccinated cases. The case death ratio is twice as high for unvaccinated cases occurring in infancy. Hence, the estimated case death ratios are 8% for unvaccinated cases occurring in infancy and 1.33% for vaccinated cases.

↵‡ Assumption: seronegative children had 50% or 25% protection against measles. Hence, the estimated case death ratios are 8% for unvaccinated cases occurring in infancy and 1.33% for vaccinated cases, but there were fewer vaccinated cases than indicated in column 4.

EPI; Expanded Programme on Immunization, MV, measles vaccine.