Table 2

Clinician prediction of survival phases 1+2+3

nin %
Low inaccurate (95% CI)Low moderate (95% CI)Accurate (95% CI)High moderate (95% CI)High inaccurate (95% CI)
Phase 1
571Total11.6 (9.1 to 14.5)19.8 (16.6 to 23.3) 23.6 (20.2 to 27.3)8.9 (6.7 to 11.6)36.1 (32.1 to 40.2)
153Residents13.1 (8.2 to 19.5)17.6 (12.0 to 24.6) 19.6 (13.6 to 26.8)10.5 (6.1 to 16.4)39.2 (31.4 to 47.4)
418Oncologists11.0 (8.2 to 14.4)20.6 (16.8 to 24.8) 25.1 (21.0 to 29.6)8.4 (5.9 to 11.5)34.9 (30.4 to 39.7)
Residents vs Oncologistsp=0.902759232
Phase 2
492Total8.9 (6.6 to 11.8)18.1 (14.8 to 21.8) 26.6 (22.8 to 30.8)7.3 (5.2 to 10.0)39.0 (34.7 to 43.5)
141Residents9.9 (5.5 to 16.1)23.4 (16.7 to 31.3) 20.6 (14.2 to 28.2)5.7 (2.5 to 10.9)40.4 (32.3 to 49.0)
351Oncologists8.5 (5.8 to 12.0)16.0 (12.3 to 20.2) 29.1 (24.4 to 34.1)8.0 (5.4 to 11.3)38.5 (33.3 to 43.8)
Residents vs Oncologistsp=0.55239201
Phase 3
443Total5.0 (3.1 to 7.4)19.4 (15.8 to 23.4) 28.0 (23.9 to 32.4)7.2 (5.0 to 10.0)40.4 (35.8 to 45.1)
151Residents4.6 (1.9 to 9.3)19.9 (13.8 to 27.1) 26.5 (19.6 to 34.3)7.3 (3.7 to 12.7)41.7 (33.8 to 50.0)
292Oncologists5.1 (2.9 to 8.3)19.2 (14.8 to 24.2) 28.8 (23.6 to 34.3)7.2 (4.5 to 10.8)39.7 (34.1 to 45.6)
Residents vs Oncologistsp=0.999962755
Total
1506Total8.8 (7.4 to 10.3)19.1 (17.2 to 21.2) 25.9 (23.7 to 28.2)7.9 (6.6 to 9.4)38.3 (35.8 to 40.8)
445Residents9.2 (6.7 to 12.3)20.2 (16.6 to 24.3) 22.2 (18.5 to 26.4)7.9 (5.5 to 10.8)40.4 (35.9 to 45.2)
1061Oncologists8.6 (7.0 to 10.4)18.7 (16.4 to 21.1) 27.4 (24.8 to 30.2)7.9 (6.4 to 9.7)37.4 (34.5 to 40.4)
Residents vs Oncologistsp=0.997692477
  • No significant differences between phase 1 vs (2+3): total p<0.2; residents p<0.6; oncologists p<0.4.