Bayesian analysis of customised birth weight centile in the GPT
| Prior belief | Probability of gain in CBCW | 95% CrI of treatment effect | |||||
| >0% | >5% | >10% | |||||
| Prior | Posterior | Prior | Posterior | Prior | Posterior | ||
| SE | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.85 | 0.91 | 0.40 | 0.37 | 3.0–15.0 |
| ME | 0.92 | 0.99 | 0.66 | 0.82 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 1.3–14.8 |
| NI | 0.50 | 0.96 | 0.31 | 0.70 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 7.4–15.7 |
| MS | 0.50 | 0.88 | 0.10 | 0.33 | 0.01 | 0.02 | −2.4–9.5 |
| SS | 0.50 | 0.81 | 0.025 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.4–6.4 |
Cells are colour-coded according to the previously defined probability perception scale. Red indicates unlikely. Orange indicates probable. Yellow indicates highly probable. Green indicates almost certain.
CBWC, customised birth weight centile; CrI, credible interval; ME, moderately enthusiastic; MS, moderately skeptical;; NI, non-informative; SE, strongly enthusiastic; SS, strongly skeptical.