Table 4

Projected epidemiological impact

Per cent reduction in cumulative TB burden, 2020–2035AhmedabadDelhi
Feasible maximum
TB incidence5.1% (4.4–6.2)5.4% (4.4–6.9)
TB deaths4.1% (2.8–5.8)6.4% (4.9–8.2)
DR-TB incidence8.0% (6.2–9.7)14% (11–17)
DR-TB deaths averted20% (18–24)32% (27–37)
Theoretical maximum
TB incidence7.4% (6.2–9.2)6.7% (5.3–8.9)
TB deaths7.9% (5.7–11)8.7% (6.8–11.3)
DR-TB incidence14% (11–16)18% (15–22)
DR-TB deaths averted35% (30–39)41% (35–47)
  • Impact is measured as the cumulative impact on TB cases and deaths in Ahmedabad and Delhi between 2020 and 2035 relative to a baseline of current PPSA scale up.

  • DR-TB, drug-resistant tuberculosis; PPSA, public–private support agency.