Negative binomial regression analyses for the three outcomes in 2019, IRR*â€
| Trust level aggregate FTE (reference group is quintile 1) | Locum intensity | Agency shifts | Unfilled shifts |
| Reference group | Reference group | Reference group | |
| Quintile 2 | 0.784 (0.527 to 1.676), <0.231 (0.159) | 0.945 (0.734 to 1.218), <0.662 (0.122) | 0.936 (0.449 to 1.952), <0.859 (0.351) |
| Quintile 3 | 0.496 (0.299 to 0.825)*, <0.007 (0.129) | 0.937 (0.675 to 1.301), <0.698 (0.157) | 1.848 (0.735 to 4.645), <0.192 (0.869) |
| Quintile 4 | 0.611 (0.349 to 1.072), <0.086 (0.175) | 0.883 (0.617 to 1.264), <0.497 (0.162) | 1.878 (0.704 to 5.011), <0.208 (0.940) |
| Quintile 5 | 0.347 (0.187 to 0.644)*, <0.001 (0.110) | 0.796 (0.530 to 1.195), <0.271(0.165) | 2.447 (0.826 to 7.251), <0.106 (1.356) |
|
Trust type
(reference group is NHS general acute trust) | Reference group | Reference group | Reference group |
| NHS specialist trust | 0.285 (0.174 to 0.468)*, <0.001 (0.072) | 1.510 (1.086 to 2.100)*, <0.014 (0.254) | 0.233 (0.091 to 0.598)*, <0.002 (0.112) |
| Mental health trust | 0.966 (0.628 to 1.486), <0.875 (0.212) | 1.576 (1.198 to 2.073)*, <0.001 (0.220) | 1.062 (0.508 to 2.221), <0.873 (0.400) |
| Ambulance service | 55.43 (20.56 to 149)*, <0.001 (27.96) | 0.033 (0.008 to 0.147)*, <0.001 (0.025) | 3.894 (0.453 to 33.14), <0.215 (4.272) |
| Community service | 1.443 (0.780 to 2.670), <0.243 (0.453) | 0.962 (0.641 to 1.445), <0.854 (0.199) | 1.360 (0.471 to 3.930), <0.570 (0.736) |
|
CQC ratings
(reference group is trusts with good and outstanding services) | Reference group | Reference group | Reference group |
| Inadequate and requiring improvement | 1.495 (1.191 to 1.877)*, <0.001 (0.173) | 1.044 (0.907 to 1.201), <0.550 (0.075) | 1.193 (0.789 to 1.804), <0.402 (0.251) |
| Trust level substantive doctor turnover rates | 1.015 (1.009 to 1.021)*, <0.001 (0.002) | 1.001 (0.997 to 1.003), <0.589 (0.001) | 0.995 (0.987 to 1.003), <0.248 (0.004) |
| Trust level vacancy rates (FTE) | 1.000 (0.999 to 1.001), <0.530 (0.005) | 0.999 (0.999 to 1.001), <0.948 (0.001) | 0.999 (0.997 to 1.001), <0.585 (0.001) |
|
Region
(reference region is London) | Reference group | Reference group | Reference group |
| South West | 0.575 (0.361 to 0.915)*, <0.019 (0.136) | 1.447 (1.098 to 1.907)*, <0.009 (0.204) | 0.687 (0.316 to 1.493), <0.343 (0.272) |
| South East | 0.701 (0.472 to 1.041), <0.078 (0.141) | 1.349 (1.047 to 1.736)*, <0.021 (0.175) | 0.524 (0.252 to 1.092), <0.085 (0.196) |
| Midlands | 1.041 (0.714 to 1.520), <0.832 (0.201) | 1.425 (1.126 to 1.804)*, <0.003 (0.172) | 0.548 (0.276 to 1.086), <0.085 (0.191) |
| East of England | 0.813 (0.533 to 1.240), <0.336 (0.175) | 1.525 (1.167 to 1.993)*, <0.002 (0.208) | 0.402 (0.182 to 0.890)*, <0.025 (0.163) |
| North West | 1.045 (0.705 to 1.550), <0.826 (0.210) | 1.327 (1.035 to 1.701)*, <0.026 (0.168) | 0.855 (0.412 to 1.773), <0.673 (0.318) |
| North East and Yorkshire | 0.754 (0.495 to 1.150), <0.191 (0.162) | 1.449 (1.120 to 1.875)*, <0.005 (0.191) | 0.575 (0.269 to 1.230), <0.154 (0.223) |
| Constant | 0.030 (0.152 to 0.601)*, <0.001 (0.105) | 0.436 (0.283 to 0.671)*, <0.001 (0.096) | 0.117 (0.038 to 0.357)*, <0.001 (0.066) |
*Model A included data on 220 trusts (observation) while models B and C included data on 214 trusts with robust standard errors.
†Coefficients can be interpreted as proportionate changes, for example, trusts in the North West had on average 4.5% higher locum intensity than trusts in London.
CQC, Care Quality Commission; FTE, full-time equivalent; IRR, incidence rate ratio; NHS, National Health Service.