Table 1
Transition probabilities between different smoking states at ages 65–95 years
| Age (x) | Transfer from daily smoking ( ) to | Transfer from someday smoking ( ) to | ||||||||
Daily smoking | Some days smoking | Recent non-smoking | Longtime non-smoking | Dead | Daily smoking | Some days smoking | Recent non-smoking | Longtime non-smoking | Dead | |
| 65 | 73.0% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 0% | 4.8% | 16.5% | 59.2% | 19.4% | 0% | 5.0% |
| 67 | 71.6% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 0% | 6.0% | 16.4% | 57.2% | 20.9% | 0% | 5.4% |
| 69 | 70.2% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 0% | 7.4% | 16.3% | 55.8% | 21.8% | 0% | 6.1% |
| 71 | 68.5% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 0% | 9.0% | 16.2% | 54.7% | 22.1% | 0% | 7.1% |
| 73 | 66.8% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 0% | 10.8% | 16.0% | 53.8% | 22.0% | 0% | 8.2% |
| 75 | 65.2% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 0% | 12.6% | 15.7% | 53.1% | 21.7% | 0% | 9.5% |
| 77 | 63.4% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 0% | 14.7% | 15.4% | 52.1% | 21.3% | 0% | 11.2% |
| 79 | 61.6% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 0% | 16.9% | 15.0% | 50.7% | 21.0% | 0% | 13.4% |
| 81 | 60.0% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 0% | 19.1% | 14.5% | 48.9% | 20.8% | 0% | 15.8% |
| 83 | 58.2% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 0% | 21.6% | 13.8% | 46.4% | 21.1% | 0% | 18.7% |
| 85 | 56.3% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 0% | 24.3% | 13.1% | 42.8% | 21.9% | 0% | 22.2% |
| 87 | 54.3% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 0% | 27.3% | 12.3% | 38.4% | 23.3% | 0% | 26.0% |
| 89 | 52.3% | 5.7% | 11.6% | 0% | 30.4% | 11.3% | 33.1% | 25.6% | 0% | 30.1% |
| 91 | 50.2% | 4.0% | 12.1% | 0% | 33.7% | 10.1% | 26.9% | 29.0% | 0% | 34.1% |
| 93 | 47.9% | 2.4% | 12.4% | 0% | 37.2% | 8.7% | 19.7% | 33.6% | 0% | 37.9% |
| 95 | 45.3% | 1.2% | 12.3% | 0% | 41.1% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 39.9% | 0% | 41.3% |
Transfer from recent non-smoking ( ) to | Transfer from longtime non-smoking ( ) to | |||||||||
Daily smoking | Some days smoking | Recent non-smoking | Longtime non-smoking | Dead | Daily smoking | Some days smoking | Recent non-smoking | Longtime non-smoking | Dead | |
| 65 | 18.4% | 34.8% | 0% | 40.5% | 6.3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 98.0% | 2.0% |
| 67 | 17.2% | 28.9% | 0% | 47.0% | 6.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 97.6% | 2.4% |
| 69 | 16.6% | 26.0% | 0% | 49.5% | 7.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 97.1% | 2.9% |
| 71 | 16.5% | 25.2% | 0% | 49.1% | 9.2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 96.4% | 3.6% |
| 73 | 16.7% | 25.8% | 0% | 46.6% | 10.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 95.5% | 4.5% |
| 75 | 17.2% | 27.5% | 0% | 42.4% | 12.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 94.5% | 5.5% |
| 77 | 17.7% | 30.1% | 0% | 36.7% | 15.4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 93.1% | 6.9% |
| 79 | 18.1% | 33.4% | 0% | 30.2% | 18.3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 91.4% | 8.6% |
| 81 | 18.2% | 36.9% | 0% | 23.6% | 21.3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 89.4% | 10.6% |
| 83 | 17.9% | 39.9% | 0% | 17.7% | 24.4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 86.8% | 13.2% |
| 85 | 17.1% | 41.8% | 0% | 13.6% | 27.5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 83.5% | 16.5% |
| 87 | 15.7% | 41.7% | 0% | 12.5% | 30.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| 89 | 13.8% | 39.1% | 0% | 15.5% | 31.6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| 91 | 11.5% | 34.0% | 0% | 22.6% | 31.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 69.9% | 30.1% |
| 93 | 9.0% | 27.1% | 0% | 28.2% | 35.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| 95 | 6.6% | 19.5% | 0% | 32.4% | 41.5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 58.5% | 41.5% |
: daily smoking, : some days smoking, : recent non-smoking, : longtime non-smoking, : dead.
