Base case model input parameters
| Parameter | Value | 95% CIs | Distribution | Source |
| Age at model start | 58.1 | – | – | HALT-IT |
| SMR year 1 | 5.21 | 4.25 to 6.38 | Log normal | Crooks et al32 |
| SMR year 2 | 1.74 | 1.42 to 2.13 | Log normal | Crooks et al32 |
| RR of all-cause mortality | 1.03 | 0.92 to 1.16 | Log normal | HALT-IT |
| 28-day probability of death* | 0.092 | 0.084 to 0.099 | Beta | HALT-IT |
| Utility AGIB survivor | 0.735 | 0.70 to 0.77 | Beta | Campbell et al6 |
| Utility decrements by age (years) | Kind et al35 | |||
| 55–64 | 0 | – | – | |
| 65–74 | 0.02 | – | – | |
| ≥75 | 0.07 | – | – | |
| Utility UK general population | By age | – | – | Kind et al35 |
| All-cause mortality | By age | – | – | ONS31 |
| Discount rate costs | 3.5% | – | – | NICE28 |
| Discount rate QALYs | 3.5% | – | – | NICE28 |
*The 28-day risk of death in the placebo arm was sampled from a beta distribution during the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, based on the proportion of deaths during the trial period (548/5981). The deaths occurring on each day, as a proportion of the overall 28-day risk, remained the same during sampling.
AGIB, acute gastrointestinal bleeding; QALYs, quality-adjusted life years; RR, risk ratio; SMR, standardised mortality ratio.