Table 3

Outcome risks for each subgroup between the five-variable method and three-variable approaches

Poor CVHCKDNAFLDAdvanced liver fibrosisAll-cause mortalityCVD-related mortalityCancer-related mortality
Crude OR (95% CI)Adj. OR (95% CI)Crude OR (95% CI)Adj. OR (95% CI)Crude OR (95% CI)Adj. OR (95% CI)Crude OR (95% CI)Adj. OR (95% CI)Crude HR (95% CI)Adj. HR (95% CI)Crude HR (95% CI)Adj. HR (95% CI)Crude HR (95% CI)Adj. HR (95% CI)
Total†MARD vs cluster A*0.76 (0.61 to 0.94)0.71 (0.56 to 0.89)1.16 (0.94 to 1.43)1.14 (0.92 to 1.41)0.99 (0.77 to 1.26)0.99 (0.77 to 1.27)0.92 (0.75 to 1.13)0.9 (0.73 to 1.12)1.1 (0.94 to 1.3)1.09 (0.93 to 1.28)1.13 (0.81 to 1.59)1.12 (0.8 to 1.58)0.95 (0.62 to 1.47)0.96 (0.63 to 1.47)
MOD vs cluster B1.01 (0.78 to 1.31)1.09 (0.8 to 1.49)0.86 (0.58 to 1.28)0.89 (0.57 to 1.4)0.86 (0.63 to 1.17)0.85 (0.61 to 1.17)0.86 (0.65 to 1.14)0.92 (0.69 to 1.24)0.85 (0.59 to 1.23)0.91 (0.63 to 1.32)0.69 (0.33 to 1.46)0.69 (0.32 to 1.46)0.7 (0.28 to 1.78)0.76 (0.3 to 1.95)
SIDD vs cluster C0.98 (0.71 to 1.37)1.00 (0.68 to 1.47)0.98 (0.53 to 1.81)0.96 (0.5 to 1.82)0.94 (0.61 to 1.46)0.94 (0.61 to 1.46)1.05 (0.63 to 1.76)1.07 (0.63 to 1.82)1.02 (0.69 to 1.52)0.98 (0.66 to 1.45)1.21 (0.63 to 2.33)1.13 (0.58 to 2.17)0.92 (0.4 to 2.12)0.92 (0.4 to 2.12)
SIRD vs cluster D1.07 (0.75 to 1.52)1.03 (0.69 to 1.53)0.66 (0.44 to 0.99)0.69 (0.45 to 1.08)0.96 (0.64 to 1.44)0.97 (0.64 to 1.48)1.03 (0.72 to 1.48)1.08 (0.74 to 1.57)0.72 (0.53 to 0.99)0.76 (0.55 to 1.05)0.67 (0.35 to 1.29)0.72 (0.37 to 1.4)1.1 (0.52 to 2.35)1.03 (0.48 to 2.2)
Male‡MARD vs cluster A0.81 (0.6 to 1.1)0.81 (0.58 to 1.12)1.21 (0.91 to 1.61)1.18 (0.88 to 1.59)1.05 (0.78 to 1.42)1.07 (0.79 to 1.45)1.02 (0.78 to 1.35)1.00 (0.74 to 1.33)1.2 (0.97 to 1.49)1.19 (0.96 to 1.48)1.21 (0.73 to 1.99)1.2 (0.73 to 1.98)1.08 (0.64 to 1.82)1.08 (0.64 to 1.83)
MOD vs cluster B1.08 (0.73 to 1.61)1.23 (0.77 to 1.99)0.86 (0.46 to 1.6)0.73 (0.36 to 1.46)0.93 (0.6 to 1.42)0.92 (0.58 to 1.44)1.01 (0.66 to 1.53)1.03 (0.66 to 1.6)0.94 (0.58 to 1.51)0.88 (0.55 to 1.42)1.07 (0.51 to 2.26)1 (0.47 to 2.12)0.7 (0.23 to 2.09)0.69 (0.23 to 2.09)
SIDD vs cluster C0.91 (0.58 to 1.43)0.77 (0.45 to 1.34)1.38 (0.61 to 3.14)1.3 (0.55 to 3.04)0.91 (0.52 to 1.6)0.87 (0.49 to 1.54)1.06 (0.49 to 2.31)1.02 (0.45 to 2.33)1.2 (0.74 to 1.96)1.15 (0.7 to 1.88)1.04 (0.48 to 2.29)0.97 (0.44 to 2.13)1.74 (0.49 to 6.19)1.68 (0.47 to 6)
SIRD vs cluster D0.89 (0.54 to 1.47)0.87 (0.5 to 1.54)0.61 (0.32 to 1.16)0.71 (0.36 to 1.41)0.69 (0.41 to 1.16)0.7 (0.41 to 1.19)1.02 (0.59 to 1.77)1.14 (0.62 to 2.07)0.53 (0.34 to 0.81)0.51 (0.32 to 0.79)0.57 (0.24 to 1.37)0.62 (0.25 to 1.52)0.78 (0.27 to 2.22)0.62 (0.21 to 1.81)
Female‡MARD vs cluster A0.71 (0.53 to 0.96)0.69 (0.5 to 0.95)1.18 (0.87 to 1.6)1.15 (0.84 to 1.57)1.06 (0.68 to 1.65)1.08 (0.69 to 1.69)0.88 (0.65 to 1.21)0.86 (0.62 to 1.18)1.11 (0.87 to 1.41)1.11 (0.87 to 1.41)1.19 (0.75 to 1.88)1.2 (0.76 to 1.89)0.88 (0.42 to 1.84)0.9 (0.43 to 1.88)
MOD vs cluster B0.93 (0.66 to 1.32)0.96 (0.63 to 1.46)0.68 (0.4 to 1.15)0.74 (0.42 to 1.3)0.83 (0.53 to 1.3)0.81 (0.52 to 1.29)0.82 (0.56 to 1.19)0.86 (0.58 to 1.26)0.91 (0.52 to 1.59)1.06 (0.6 to 1.86)0.28 (0.03 to 2.48)0.36 (0.04 to 3.39)0.93 (0.29 to 3.06)1.03 (0.31 to 3.44)
SIDD vs cluster C1.00 (0.60 to 1.65)1.00 (0.56 to 1.76)0.86 (0.36 to 2.05)0.81 (0.31 to 2.11)1.02 (0.5 to 2.08)1.02 (0.5 to 2.09)0.98 (0.5 to 1.92)1.04 (0.51 to 2.09)1.21 (0.63 to 2.3)1.13 (0.59 to 2.17)1.54 (0.34 to 6.86)1.32 (0.29 to 5.93)0.94 (0.29 to 3.07)0.92 (0.28 to 3.05)
SIRD vs cluster D1.55 (0.93 to 2.58)1.59 (0.89 to 2.82)0.69 (0.4 to 1.21)0.82 (0.44 to 1.54)1.03 (0.51 to 2.07)1.05 (0.52 to 2.14)1.07 (0.64 to 1.81)1.14 (0.66 to 1.96)0.6 (0.37 to 0.97)0.6 (0.36 to 0.99)0.57 (0.21 to 1.57)0.64 (0.21 to 1.88)1.23 (0.34 to 4.47)1.07 (0.29 to 3.99)
Newly diagnosed§MARD vs cluster A1.01 (0.67 to 1.5)1.08 (0.7 to 1.65)1.35 (0.89 to 2.04)1.36 (0.89 to 2.09)1.03 (0.68 to 1.56)1.00 (0.65 to 1.54)1.22 (0.81 to 1.83)1.21 (0.8 to 1.84)1.32 (0.99 to 1.77)1.34 (1 to 1.79)1.27 (0.74 to 2.19)1.31 (0.76 to 2.27)1.3 (0.64 to 2.64)1.39 (0.68 to 2.84)
MOD vs cluster B1.03 (0.64 to 1.65)1.25 (0.73 to 2.14)0.65 (0.25 to 1.68)0.62 (0.23 to 1.63)0.91 (0.53 to 1.57)0.95 (0.53 to 1.71)1.15 (0.7 to 1.89)1.21 (0.72 to 2.02)0.97 (0.52 to 1.8)1.1 (0.59 to 2.04)1.59 (0.49 to 5.22)1.85 (0.54 to 6.37)0.96 (0.26 to 3.58)1 (0.27 to 3.72)
SIDD vs cluster C1.08 (0.55 to 2.14)0.98 (0.42 to 2.29)1.1 (0.3 to 3.97)1.07 (0.17 to 6.59)0.95 (0.43 to 2.09)0.94 (0.42 to 2.1)0.98 (0.37 to 2.58)0.93 (0.34 to 2.57)1.21 (0.51 to 2.85)1.16 (0.49 to 2.75)1.11 (0.28 to 4.44)1.05 (0.26 to 4.21)1.09 (0.15 to 7.72)1 (0.14 to 7.1)
SIRD vs cluster D0.45 (0.18 to 1.08)0.26 (0.09 to 0.74)1.6 (0.19 to 13.62)2.46 (0.25 to 23.99)1.4 (0.48 to 4.06)1.6 (0.5 to 5.15)1.13 (0.3 to 4.26)1.22 (0.28 to 5.22)0.4 (0.16 to 1.01)0.24 (0.08 to 0.66)0.33 (0.06 to 1.99)0.26 (0.04 to 1.8)
Already diagnosed†MARD vs cluster A0.8 (0.63 to 1.02)0.78 (0.6 to 1)1.01 (0.8 to 1.29)1.02 (0.8 to 1.31)1.15 (0.86 to 1.54)1.14 (0.84 to 1.55)0.88 (0.7 to 1.1)0.88 (0.69 to 1.11)1.01 (0.84 to 1.23)1.02 (0.84 to 1.23)1.05 (0.69 to 1.6)1.06 (0.69 to 1.62)0.94 (0.57 to 1.56)0.94 (0.57 to 1.56)
MOD vs cluster B0.93 (0.69 to 1.25)0.96 (0.67 to 1.36)0.73 (0.49 to 1.1)0.81 (0.52 to 1.27)0.78 (0.55 to 1.1)0.77 (0.54 to 1.11)0.85 (0.62 to 1.18)0.95 (0.67 to 1.33)0.96 (0.64 to 1.42)1.08 (0.72 to 1.62)0.61 (0.25 to 1.47)0.6 (0.25 to 1.47)0.71 (0.29 to 1.76)0.89 (0.35 to 2.25)
SIDD vs cluster C0.93 (0.65 to 1.34)0.95 (0.62 to 1.46)0.96 (0.45 to 2.04)0.96 (0.44 to 2.09)0.82 (0.49 to 1.36)0.83 (0.5 to 1.38)1 (0.55 to 1.82)1.05 (0.57 to 1.95)0.89 (0.58 to 1.36)0.85 (0.55 to 1.3)0.96 (0.45 to 2.05)0.85 (0.4 to 1.82)1.05 (0.38 to 2.9)1.07 (0.39 to 2.96)
SIRD vs cluster D1.51 (0.95 to 2.4)1.76 (1.04 to 2.97)0.91 (0.56 to 1.49)0.91 (0.53 to 1.54)1.03 (0.59 to 1.8)0.98 (0.55 to 1.74)1.13 (0.71 to 1.8)1.09 (0.66 to 1.79)0.94 (0.64 to 1.39)0.92 (0.62 to 1.37)1.05 (0.52 to 2.13)1.08 (0.53 to 2.19)1.68 (0.55 to 5.19)1.52 (0.49 to 4.72)
  • *All comparisons take MARD, MOD, SIDD and SIRD as reference subgroups.

  • †Adjust for sex, race, ever smoking, education level, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and duration of diabetes.

  • ‡Adjust for race, ever smoking, education level, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and duration of diabetes.

  • §Adjust for sex, race, ever smoking, education level, total cholesterol and systolic blood pressure.

  • ¶Since there is too little cardiovascular mortality in SIRD and cluster D, there is no calculation result.

  • CKD, chronic kidney disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease; CVH, cardiovascular health; MARD, mild age-related diabetes; MOD, mild obesity-related diabetes; NAFLD, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; SIDD, severe insulin-deficient diabetes; SIRD, severe insulin-resistant diabetes.