Table 3

Binomial regression models predicting the number of sick leave days

	Sick-listing at OHS				Other sick leaves
	β coefficient	SE	OR†	95% CI	β coefficient	SE	OR†	95% CI
Sick leave days (all periods, all DC:s) (crude model) (n=2 160 445 employee-months, n=75 962 employees)
Immediate change in trend	0.012	0.035	1.012	0.95 to 1.08	0.060**	0.018	1.062	1.03 to 1.10
Gradual change in trend	−0.014***	0.003	0.986	0.98 to 0.99	−0.008***	0.002	0.992	0.99 to 1.00
Linear trend before intervention (slope)	0.006***	0.001	1.006	1.00 to 1.01	0.002***	0.001	1.002	1.00 to 1.00
Sick leave days (all periods, all DC:s) (fully adjusted model) (n=2 148 566 employee-months, n=74 701 employees)
Immediate change in trend	−0.003	0.032	0.997	0.94 to 1.06	0.057**	0.018	1.059	1.02 to 1.10
Gradual change in trend	−0.010**	0.003	0.990	0.98 to 1.00	−0.007***	0.002	0.993	0.99 to 0.99
Linear trend before intervention (slope)	0.007***	0.001	1.007	1.01 to 1.01	0.003***	0.001	1.003	1.00 to 1.01
Sick leave days (short periods, <11 calendar days, all DC:s) (n=2 160 445 employee-months, n=75 962 employees)
Immediate change in trend	0.105***	0.024	1.111	1.06 to 1.16	0.196***	0.010	1.217	1.19 to 1.24
Gradual change in trend	−0.020***	0.002	0.980	0.98 to 0.98	−0.009***	0.001	0.991	0.99 to 0.99
Linear trend before intervention (slope)	0.001	0.001	1.001	1.00 to 1.00	−0.003***	<0.001	0.997	1.00 to 1.00
Sick leave days in low back pain (periods ≥11 calendar days) (n=2 160 445 employee-months, n=75 962 employees)
Immediate change in trend	−0.547	0.340	0.579	0.30 to 1.13	−0.205	0.283	0.815	0.47 to 1.42
Gradual change in trend	0.040	0.035	1.041	0.97 to 1.12	−0.019	0.031	0.981	0.92 to 1.04
Linear trend before intervention (slope)	−0.004	0.009	0.996	0.98 to 1.01	−0.004	0.007	0.996	0.98 to 1.01
Sick leave days for shoulder pain (periods ≥11 calendar days) (n=2 160 445 employee-months, n=75 962 employees)
Immediate change in trend	0.365	0.207	1.441	0.96 to 2.16	−0.426	0.292	0.653	0.34 to 1.16
Gradual change in trend	−0.023	0.023	0.977	0.93 to 1.02	0.013	0.025	1.013	0.97 to 1.06
Linear trend before intervention (slope)	−0.004	0.008	0.996	0.98 to 1.01	−0.003	0.008	0.997	0.98 to 1.01
Sick leave days for elbow pain (periods ≥11 calendar days) (n=2 160 445 employee-months, n=75 962 employees)
Immediate change in trend	−0.964	0.514	0.381	0.14 to 1.04	−0.398	0.486	0.672	0.26 to 1.74
Gradual change in trend	−0.034	0.072	0.967	0.84 to 1.11	−0.079	0.084	0.924	0.78 to 1.09
Linear trend before intervention (slope)	0.003	0.014	1.003	0.98 to 1.03	−0.001	0.018	0.999	0.96 to 1.04

Adjusted for age, sex, occupational class, job contract, prescribed reimbursed purchases of medication for chronic diseases and prescribed reimbursed psychotropic medication.
Follow-up from 1st January 2013 to 20th April 2017.
*p<0.05, **p<0.01, ***p<0.001.
†Immediate intervention estimate: OR was estimated for any employee to have any sick leave day after versus before the intervention. Gradual intervention estimate: OR was estimated for any employee to have a sick leave day at index month versus preceding month during the period after the intervention.
DC, diagnostic code; OHS, occupational healthcare services.