Table 3

Model fits with 95% CIs showing variation in prediction over 12 months

Ambulance serviceModel fitness testsAkaike’s information criterion (AIC)Corrected AICBayesian information criterionSchwarz Bayesian criterionModel selected
CARIMA90.1803−87.5977−77.4113−79.4149
SARIMA116.747−113.923−100.169−103.29SARIMA
{1,0,0},{1,1,1}12
IARIMA47.7445−45.1811−40.9185−40.7523
SARIMA47.7705−44.1235−37.5104−33.7861SARIMA
{1,0,0},{2,1,1}12
  • AIC shown in bold was used for model selection.

  • ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average; SARIMA, seasonal ARIMA.