Table 2

Obtaining a preferred health outcome specification for social care, healthcare and public health expenditure, backward selection (second-stage results) (created by the authors)

Variables(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)
All causesAll causesAll causesAll causesAll causesAll causesAll causes
2013/2014 PB/GSS/PH spend2013/2014 PB/GSS/PH spend2013/2014 PB/PSS/PH spend2013/2014 PB/PSS/PH spend2013/2014 PB/PSS/PH spend2013/2014 PB/PSS/PH spend2013/2014 PB/PSS/PH spend
SYLLR 2013/2014/2015SYLLR 2013/2014/2015SYLLR 2013/2014/2015SYLLR 2013/2014/2015SYLLR 2013/2014/2015SYLLR 2013/2014/2015SYLLR 2013/2014/2015
Outcome modelOutcome modelOutcome modelOutcome modelOutcome modelOutcome modelOutcome model
Instrument PB/GSS/PH spendInstrument PB/GSS/PH spendInstrument PB/GSS/PH spendInstrument PB/GSS/PH spendInstrument PB/GSS/PH spend
WeightedWeightedWeightedWeightedWeightedWeightedWeighted
OLSOLSIV second stageIV second stageIV second stageIV second stageIV second stage
Full specificationParsimonious specificationParsimonious specificationParsimonious_v2Parsimonious_v3Parsimonious_v4Parsimonious_v5
Public health expenditure per person0.037
(0.027)
0.029
(0.027)
0.017
(0.032)
0.010
(0.039)
0.017
(0.042)
−0.018
(0.041)
−0.019
(0.041)
CCG (PB) healthcare spend per person−0.406***
(0.139)
−0.492***
(0.119)
−0.840***
(0.142)
−0.609**
(0.251)
−0.514
(0.337)
−0.545**
(0.243)
−0.532**
(0.259)
Social service (GSS) spend per person0.044
(0.055)
0.039
(0.053)
−0.078
(0.102)
−0.272**
(0.124)
−0.326*
(0.182)
−0.344**
(0.134)
−0.336**
(0.152)
Index of Multiple Deprivation 20100.219***
(0.074)
0.156**
(0.066)
0.239***
(0.059)
0.243***
(0.068)
0.238***
(0.075)
−0.504*
(0.260)
−0.505**
(0.255)
Young adult social service need per person0.096
(0.166)
Older adult social service need per person0.080
(0.073)
% residents born outside the European Union−0.038*
(0.020)
% population in white ethnic group0.172***
(0.054)
0.227***
(0.036)
0.289***
(0.036)
0.309***
(0.038)
0.309***
(0.041)
0.321***
(0.041)
0.319***
(0.046)
% population providing unpaid care−0.455***
(0.171)
−0.233***
(0.086)
−0.214**
(0.087)
−0.251**
(0.098)
−0.230**
(0.108)
−0.188**
(0.085)
−0.190**
(0.085)
% population aged 16–74 with no qualifications−0.043
(0.101)
% households without a car−0.201***
(0.074)
% households that are one pensioner households0.057
(0.073)
% lone parent households with dependent children0.025
(0.065)
% population aged 16–74 that are permanently sick0.162*
(0.097)
0.217***
(0.069)
0.229***
(0.071)
0.262***
(0.087)
0.259***
(0.098)
0.271***
(0.080)
0.271***
(0.079)
% aged 16–74 that are long-term unemployed0.057
(0.057)
% aged 16–74 in employment working agriculture−0.013
(0.012)
% aged 16–74 in managerial/professional occupations−0.241***
(0.063)
−0.285***
(0.044)
−0.190***
(0.050)
−0.162***
(0.051)
−0.154**
(0.060)
−0.098
(0.062)
−0.100
(0.065)
Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 squared0.130***
(0.043)
0.130***
(0.042)
Constant7.319***
(1.040)
8.862***
(0.819)
11.187***
(1.021)
9.408***
(1.693)
8.710***
(2.295)
10.277***
(1.568)
10.199***
(1.662)
Observations150150150150150150150
R-squared0.9190.908
Ramsey reset F-statistic5.0966.448
Probability >F0.0020.000
Endogeneity test statistic8.93415.53615.51023.48218.528
Endogeneity p value0.0300.0010.0010.0000.000
Hansen-Sargan test statistic21.67110.3272.5060.2650.257
Hansen-Sargan p value0.0060.0660.2860.8760.612
Pesaran-Taylor reset statistic0.1872.8923.5400.0080.285
Pesaran-Taylor p value0.6650.0890.0600.9270.593
Sanderson-Windmeijer_PB F-statistic8.3908.96613.33314.35215.818
Sanderson-Windmeijer _PB p value0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
Sanderson-Windmeijer _GSS F-statistic4.4374.8756.7209.06311.567
Sanderson-Windmeijer _GSS p value0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
Sanderson-Windmeijer _PH F-statistic28.25937.92756.03556.14659.408
Sanderson-Windmeijer _PH p value0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
  • Robust SEs in parentheses.

  • ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1.

  • CCG, Clinical Commissioning Group; IV, instrumental variable; OLS, ordinary least squares ; PB/GSS, programme budgeting/gross social service/public health; PH, public health; SYLLR, standardised years of life lost rate.