Parameters estimated by Bayesian model
| Variable | Parameter | No | Priors |
| ct, where t=1…6 | Number of initial cases on first 6 days | 6 | Exponential(1.0/tau) |
| R0 | Baseline reproduction number | 1 | Normal(2.4,0.5) |
| Rt | Time-varying effective reproduction number | 9 | Normal(0.8,0.25) |
| ϕ | Variance parameter for negative binomial distribution of deaths | 1 | Normal(0,5) |
| τ | Parameter in prior of ct | 1 | Exponential(0.03) |