Table 3

Overall association of county-level race/ethnic composition (IRR per 10% increase) with incidence and case fatality rate of COVID-19 as of 6 March 2021

Model 1*Model 2†Model 3‡
IRR (95% CI)P valueIRR (95% CI)P valueIRR (95% CI)P value
Incidence
White0.99 (0.98 to 0.99)<0.0011.00 (1.00 to 1.01)0.451.01 (1.00 to 1.01)0.20
Black1.01 (0.99 to 1.01)0.240.99 (0.98 to 1.00)0.010.99 (0.98 to 1.00)0.01
Hispanic1.06 (1.05 to 1.07)<0.0011.06 (1.05 to 1.07)<0.0011.07 (1.05 to 1.08)<0.001
Death per capita
White0.94 (0.93 to 1.00)<0.0010.99 (0.97 to 1.00)0.050.99 (0.97 to 1.00)0.05
Black1.06 (1.04 to 1.08)<0.0011.00 (0.99 to 1.02)0.911.00 (0.99 to 1.02)0.85
Hispanic1.10 (1.08 to 1.11)<0.0011.067 (1.049 to 1.085)<0.0011.07 (1.05 to 1.08)<0.001
  • *Base model: adjusted for proportion of population aged ≥65 years and state-level COVID-19 testing.

  • †Base model+CMS average HCC score (proxy for comorbidities).

  • ‡Base model+CMS average HCC score (proxy for comorbidities)+environmental factors including average daily temperature (degrees Fahrenheit), average daily precipitation and average particulate matter of diameter ≥2.5 μm.

  • CMS, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services; HCC, Hierarchical Condition Category; IRR, incidence rate ratio.