Table 1

List of the interventions under consideration along with their implementation in the model

StrategyImplementation
Current situationAssumed to be in place at the start of the outbreak
Workplaces are closed; public events are banned; restrictions on gatherings are in place; public transport is reduced.
Consider these strategies as a bundle equating to a combined reduction inRt of 24%.9
Dates and details of individual non-pharmaceutical interventions are reported by OxCGRT.6
Enhanced shielding:
Current situation, plus
shielding of those aged ≥60 years
Reduce contact rates by 60% for populations aged ≥60 years in addition to the reduction in Rt mentioned previously.
It is implemented after a trigger is reached.*
Lockdown:
Current situation plus:
Stay-at-home requirements
School closures
Enforcement of social distancing in excepted businesses
Prohibition of public transportation
Prohibition of all gatherings outside household
Consider that this bundle equates to a sustained reduction in Rt of 42%.9
It is implemented after a trigger is reached.*
  • *The trigger date for interventions to be applied was when the rate of death exceeded 1.0 COVID-19 deaths per 100 000 population per week.