Summary of epidemiological impacts for the different scenarios shown in figure 3
| Infection-preventing vaccine | Symptomatic-disease-preventing vaccine | |||||
| Percentage reduction in peak symptomatic incidence | Percentage reduction in cumulative mortality | Number needed to vaccinate to avert one death | Percentage reduction in peak symptomatic incidence | Percentage reduction in cumulative mortality | Number needed to vaccinate to avert one death | |
| (A) Keyworkers (HCW+FW) | 4.8 (3.8–6.3) | 2.0 (1.4–2.8) | 1872 (1292–3031) | 2.3 (1.8–3.1) | 2.0 (1.7–2.4) | 1877 (1226–3034) |
| (B) Keyworkers+individuals with comorbidities (24–60 years old) | 18.8 (14.9–23.6) | 11.8 (8.2–15.7) | 320 (213–528) | 8.9 (7.1–11.9) | 13.6 (10.8–16.4) | 273 (179–460) |
| (C) Above two groups (A+B)+all individuals over 60 years of age | 20.6 (16.7–25.4) | 29.7 (25.8–33.8) | 127 (87–196) | 10.4 (8.4–13.0) | 32.9 (28.6–37.3) | 114 (76–184) |
Numbers show median estimates, while parentheses show 95% uncertainty intervals.
FW, frontline worker; HCW, healthcare workers.