Table 2

Discrimination performance of guideline approach using the 2018 validation set

Canadian guidelines*AUROCSensitivitySpecificity
History of mental disorder only0.6200.900.34
Substance abuse only0.6860.990.37
OME/day >90 only0.5390.220.85
(Mental disorder and substance abuse) or OME/day>900.6900.910.47
Mental disorder and substance abuse and OME/day>900.5600.200.91
Mental disorder or substance abuse or OME/day>900.5890.990.18
CMS guidelines†
High opioid dose (>120 OME/day for 90+days)0.5070.0810.933
Concurrency (Opioid and BZRA for 30+days)0.5750.4230.727
Multiple doctors (>4)0.5910.2940.888
Multiple pharmacies (>4)0.5370.1200.959
All conditions0.500.0010.999
Any condition0.6220.620.625
  • Guideline approaches were adapted from the 2017 Canadian opioid prescribing guideline and 2019 CMS opioid safety measures and compared with logistic regression and XGBoost classifiers (each with an estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88). These guidelines were used as rules to predict the 30-day risk of event at the time of opioid dispensation.

  • *The Canadian guidelines do not specify timelines. >90 OME was determined by taking the average daily OME over the 30 days prior to dispensation.

  • †The CMS guidelines specify 90 or more days at >120 OME and concurrent use of opioids and benzodiazepines for 30 days or more within an assessment period of 180 days.

  • AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; BZRA, benzodiazepine receptor agonist; CMS, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid services; OME, daily oral morphine equivalents.