Table 2

Transition time in years, and rates as annual percentages in different phases of the natural history of colorectal cancer for the different model scenarios11 12

Name of the modelMISCANCRC-SPINSimCRCGerman lowGerman high
Phase I: from adenoma to preclinical cancer
Annual transition from non-advanced adenoma to advanced adenoma (%)3.64.2
Annual transition from advanced adenoma to preclinical cancer (%)2.55.6
Median dwell time (years)62319
Annual transition from adenoma to preclinical cancer (%)*10.93.03.6
Phase II: from preclinical cancer to cancer
Median of dwell time (years)223
Annual transition from preclinical cancer to cancer (%)*29.329.320.617.322.5
Total: from adenoma to cancer
Annual transition from adenoma to cancer (%)0.72†1.801.810.13‡0.36‡
  • *Calculated based on reported median dwell time from adenoma to preclinical cancer and from preclinical cancer to cancer for discrete time Markov models with 1-year intervals.

  • †Assuming 14% progressive adenomas.

  • ‡Assuming 100% non-advanced adenomas.

  • CRC-SPIN, Colorectal Cancer Simulated Population model for Incidence and Natural history; MISCAN, Microsimulation Screening Analysis; SimCRC, Simulation Model of Colorectal Cancer.