Table 3

Number of observed and prevented CRCs and CRC overdiagnosis for the five different model scenarios for FOBT screening and sigmoidoscopy screening, respectively

Screening armControl arm
Prevented CRC*Observed CRCExpected CRCPrevented CRC*Observed CRCOverdiagnosed CRC*Overdiagnosis (%)
FOBTMISCAN7222792351902354−3−0.1
CRC-SPIN2002279247913823541255.3
SimCRC2082279248713823541335.6
German, low12122792400582354462.0
German, high2542279253313723541797.6
Sigmoidoscopy†MISCAN20739360045214832.7
CRC-SPIN6103931003452551121.9
SimCRC6383931031452579128.1
German, low17339356645211425.2
German, high39339378645233473.9
  • Overdiagnosis is calculated as the number of overdiagnosed CRC divided by the number of observed CRC in the control arm.

  • *Primary analysis included only adenomas in the screening attenders.

  • †Number of observed CRC in the control arm was standardised with the screening arm.

  • CRC, colorectal cancer; CRC-SPIN, Colorectal Cancer Simulated Population model for Incidence and Natural history; FOBT, faecal occult blood testing ; MISCAN, Microsimulation Screening Analysis; SimCRC, Simulation Model of Colorectal Cancer.