A multivariate Bayesian poisson regression model with spatially structured and spatially unstructured random effects for DR-TB in Hunan province, China, 2012–2018
| Variables | Spatially unstructured model | Spatially structured model | Both spatially structured and unstructured model |
| (RR (95%CrI) | (RR (95%CrI) | (RR (95%CrI) | |
| Socioeconomic and demographic factors | |||
| Proportion of male in a county | 0.96 (0.87 to 1.07) | 0.93 (0.82 to 1.07) | 0.96 (0.86 to 1.08) |
| Percentage of urban residence in the counties | 1.09 (1.08 to 1.30) | 1.02 (1.01 to 1.20) | 1.04 (1.02 to 1.25) |
| GDP of the county (10 000 yuan per person per year)* | 1.01 (0.87 to 1.17) | 1.00 (0.87 to 1.15) | 1.01 (0.88 to 1.17) |
| Annual birth rate in the county (%) | 0.97 (0.85 to 1.12) | 1.00 (0.85 to 1.17) | 0.98 (0.85 to 1.15) |
| Annual death rate in the county (%) | 1.01 (0.84 to 1.20) | 1.04 (0.88 to 1.23) | 1.02 (0.85 to 1.22) |
| Healthcare access | |||
| Contraceptive use rate of the county (%) | 0.93 (0.82 to 1.05) | 0.97 (0.84 to 1.11) | 0.94 (0.83 to 1.08) |
| No of institutions per 10 000 population in a county | 1.01 (0.86 to 1.19) | 0.94 (0.80 to 1.09) | 0.98 (0.83 to 1.16) |
| No of medical personnel per 10 000 population in county | 0.89 (0.75 to 1.05) | 0.94 (0.80 to 1.09) | 0.91 (0.77 to 1.08) |
| Climatic factors | |||
| Monthly average temperature (°C) | 1.13 (1.00 to 1.28) | 1.00 (0.85 to 1.18) | 1.08 (0.92 to 1.24) |
| Annual total precipitation (mm) | 0.99 (0.85 to 1.14) | 1.08 (0.88 to 1.33) | 1.01 (0.85 to 1.23) |
| Monthly sunshine hours (kJ/m2/day) | 1.15 (1.00 to 1.32) | 1.02 (0.80 to 1.26) | 1.11 (0.90 to 1.32) |
| Heterogenicity | |||
| Variance of spatially unstructured random effect (σ2) | 4.56 (3.05 to 6.73) | 6.21 (3.47 to 72.77) | |
| Variance of spatial structured random effect (σ2) | 1.10 (0.73 to 1.64) | 6.39 (1.11 to 729.60) | |
| Intercept (alpha) | −0.14 (−0.25 to −0.03) | −0.12 (−0.19 to −0.06) | −0.13 (−0.23 to −0.04) |
| DIC | 689.9 | 498.1 | 603.2 |
*GDP (¥10 000 per person per year; ¥1=US$0.15).
CrI, credible interval; DIC, deviance information criterion; GDP, gross domestic product.