Summary of model parameters and uncertainties for probabilistic sensitivity analysis
| Costs | Model parameters | Base case | Low | High | Source |
| Target population | |||||
| One district | Population | 1 000 000 | NA | NA | 23 |
| MWRA (15–44 years) | 243 478 | ||||
| Fertility rate (birth) (B) per 1000 MWRA | 66 | 24 | |||
| Abortion rate (A) per 1000 pregnant women | 29 | 25 | |||
| Fetal loss rate (death) in 1000 births (D) | 28 | 26 | |||
| Pregnant women* | 14 936 | 27 | |||
| Community health workers | 500 | Assumption | |||
| Population coverage† | |||||
| mCARE system | Census enumeration (90%) × pregnancy surveillance (90%) | 81% | 70% | 90% | Assumption from expert interviews |
| Paper system (status quo) | Census enumeration (90%) × pregnancy surveillance (60%) | 72% | 60% | 80% | |
| Service coverage | |||||
| Antenatal care | Syphilis detection and treatment | 20% | Annual increase rate −20% for each scenario | Annual increase rate +20% for each scenario | Lives Saved Tool v.5.71 (33)† |
| Hypertensive disorder case management | 50% | ||||
| Diabetes case management | 14% | ||||
| MgSO4 management of pre-eclampsia | 5% | ||||
| Child delivery | Skilled birth attendance (including community and facility delivery)‡ | 42% | Increase to 65% by 2027 | Increase to 65% by 2027 | |
| Facility delivery | 38% | Constants as 38% by 2027 | Increase to 58% by 2027 | ||
| Breastfeeding | Community/home-based intervention (education only) | 52% | Annual increase rate −20% for each scenario | Annual increase rate +20% for each scenario | |
| Postnatal care | Postnatal care (clean postnatal practice) | 55% | |||
| Complementary feeding (education only) | 28% | ||||
| Programme costs | Annualised costs | Low | High | ||
| mCARE system | Partnership and consensus building | 7000 | 3000 | 11 000 | Online supplemental appendix tables S1 and S2: informant interview, financial records |
| System optimisation | 30 000 | 19 000 | 42 000 | ||
| Phone/tablet procurement | 60 000 | 44 000 | 78 000 | ||
| Training (with phone) | 206 000 | 181 000 | 242 000 | ||
| Survey/registries printing | 16 000 | 8000 | 24 000 | ||
| Supervision | 184 000 | 135 000 | 252 000 | ||
| Census enumeration | 127 000 | 101 000 | 354 000 | ||
| Pregnancy surveillance | 212 000 | 120 000 | 240 000 | ||
| SMS reminder | 2000 | 1800 | 2700 | ||
| Server hosting | 35 000 | 26 000 | 41 000 | ||
| Home-visit reminder | 151 000 | 120 000 | 180 000 | ||
| Data reporting and processing | 98 000 | 72 000 | 120 000 | ||
| Paper system (status quo) | Survey/registry printing | 34 000 | 27 000 | 42 000 | |
| Training | 11 000 | 9000 | 13 000 | ||
| Supervision | 184 000 | 147 000 | 221 000 | ||
| Census enumeration | 19 000 | 15 000 | 24 000 | ||
| Pregnancy surveillance | 264 000 | 216 000 | 312 000 | ||
| Data reporting and processing | 174 000 | 132 000 | 216 000 | ||
| Provider and user costs | |||||
| Antenatal care | Provider unit cost | 2.47 | 1.95 | 2.99 | 40 |
| User unit costs | 1.50 | 0.78 | 2.21 | ||
| Home delivery | Provider unit cost | 5.50 | 4.00 | 7.00 | |
| User unit costs | 19.00 | 3.00 | 35.00 | ||
| Facility delivery | Provider unit cost | 46.00 | 12.00 | 80.00 | |
| User unit costs | 79.00 | 11.00 | 147.00 | ||
| Postnatal care | Provider unit cost | 1.23 | 0.62 | 1.83 | |
| User unit costs | 7.05 | 0.26 | 13.83 | ||
*Number of pregnant women = MWRA/1000 × {(B×Pb) + (A×Pa) + (D×Pd)}, where P is the proportion of the year a woman is pregnant for each pregnancy outcome by month (Pb: 9 months=0.75, Pa: 2 months=0.167, Pd: 3 months=0.25). (27)
†Coverage data for this indicator are drawn from Demographic and Health Survey, Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey and other nationally representative household surveys.28
‡Percent of children born with a skilled attendant present, including doctors, nurses or midwives, in a facility or at home/community.
MWRA, married women of reproductive age; NA, not applicable; SMS, short message service.