Simplified multivariable logistic regression model based on predictors selected by a backward stepwise algorithm
| Predictors | Regression coefficients | SE | OR (95% CI) | P value |
| Sex | ||||
| Women | Reference category | |||
| Men | 0.744 | 0.112 | 2.10 (1.69 to 2.62) | <0.001 |
| Age (years) | ||||
| <40 | Reference category | |||
| 40–49 | 1.215 | 0.464 | 3.37 (1.36 to 8.37) | 0.009 |
| 50–59 | 2.459 | 0.414 | 11.69 (5.20 to 26.30) | <0.001 |
| 60–69 | 3.388 | 0.398 | 29.59 (13.56 to 64.59) | <0.001 |
| 70–79 | 4.082 | 0.397 | 59.27 (27.22 to 129.05) | <0.001 |
| 80–89 | 4.700 | 0.399 | 109.93 (50.31 to 240.20) | <0.001 |
| 90+ | 5.302 | 0.427 | 200.66 (86.84 to 463.63) | <0.001 |
| Morbidity level* | ||||
| 1-point increase | 0.448 | 0.049 | 1.56 (1.42 to 1.72) | <0.001 |
| Intercept | −6.453 | 0.386 | <0.001 |
Overall predictive power: AUC (95% CI): 0.893 (0.879 to 0.907); sensitivity: 85.8% and specificity: 80.3%.
*One point for each comorbidity: chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, recent history of cancer (≤5 years), chronic heart failure, acid-related disorders and diabetes mellitus (maximum of 4 points per person; additional points were not considered due to a low prevalence in our cohort).