Table 2

Fama-MacBeth regression for the US counties

OverallBefore lockdown (7 Apr)After lockdown (7 Apr)
R20.11550.13440.0925
Temperature
 coef−0.0165−0.0204−0.0118
 95% CI(−0.0257 to –0.0073)(−0.0311 to –0.0096)(−0.0279 to 0.0043)
 SE0.00450.00520.0077
 t-stat−3.62−3.93−1.54
 p value0.0010.0010.141
Relative humidity
 coef−0.0049−0.0080−0.0013
 95% CI(−0.0103 to 0.0005)(−0.0150 to –0.0010)(−0.0027 to 0.0001)
 SE0.00270.00340.0007
 t-stat−1.84−2.36−1.90
 p value0.0730.0280.073
Population density
 coef4.39E−67.00E−61.23E−6
 95% CI(−0.00001 to 0.00002)(−0.00003 to 0.00004)(−9.84E−7 to 3.45E−6)
 SE8.44E−60.000021.05E−6
 t-stat0.520.441.17
 p value0.6060.6660.258
Percentage over 65
 coef−0.9243−1.1084−0.7014
 95% CI(−1.3510 to –0.4976)(−1.8119 to –0.4050)(−1.0696 to –0.3332)
 SE0.21130.33920.1752
 t-stat−4.37−3.27−4.00
 p value0.00010.0040.001
Gini
 coef−1.8428−1.9255−1.7426
 95% CI(−3.5058 to –0.1797)(−4.4539 to 0.6028)(−2.4697 to –1.0154)
 SE0.82351.21910.3461
 t-stat−2.24−1.58−5.03
 p value0.0310.1290.0001
Socioeconomic factor
 coef0.09160.14060.0324
 95% CI(0.0338 to 0.1495)(0.0886 to 0.1925)(−0.0108 to 0.0756)
 SE0.02870.02500.0206
 t-stat3.205.611.58
 p value0.0030.000010.133
No of ICU beds per capita
 coef−0.0097−0.0086−0.0110
 95% CI(−0.0233 to 0.0039)(−0.0299 to 0.0126)(−0.0171 to –0.0049)
 SE0.00670.01020.0029
 t-stat−1.44−0.84−3.81
 p value0.1560.4080.001
Fraction of maximum moving distance over normal time
 coef0.00380.00220.0057
 95% CI(0.0014 to 0.0062)(−0.0008 to 0.0053)(0.0048 to 0.0066)
 SE0.00120.00150.0004
 t-stat3.231.5013.71
 p value0.0020.1470
Home-stay minutes
 coef0.00030.0008−0.0002
 95% CI(−0.0002 to 0.0008)(0.0004 to 0.0011)(−0.0004 to –0.00003)
 SE0.00020.00020.0001
 t-stat1.324.46−2.40
 p value0.1940.00020.027
Latitude
 coef−0.0174−0.03330.0018
 95% CI(−0.0357 to 0.0009)(−0.0492 to –0.0173)(−0.0189 to 0.0224)
 SE0.00910.00770.0098
 t-stat−1.92−4.330.18
 p value0.0610.00030.861
Longitude
 coef0.00680.01020.0027
 95% CI(0.0031 to 0.0105)(0.0082 to 0.0122)(0.0004 to 0.0049)
 SE0.00180.00100.0011
 t-stat3.7110.512.49
 p value0.00100.023
const
 coef1.73862.19701.1837
 95% CI(1.1784 to 2.2988)(1.6631 to 2.7309)(1.1687 to 1.1985)
 SE0.27740.25740.0071
 t-stat6.278.53166.63
 p value000
  • Daily R values from 15 March to 25 April and temperature and relative humidity over 6 days up to and including the day when R value is measured, are used in the regression for 1005 US counties with more than 20 000 population. The regression is estimated by the Fama-MacBeth approach.