Table 2

Prediction of a first serious liver event (SLE), liver admission with or without SLE (liver disease or SLE), or mortality in validation dataset 1 (UHS cohort) and prediction of a first SLE or liver admission with or without SLE in validation dataset 2 (CHIE cohort), within 5 years of the CIRRUS index test

CIRRUSRisk factorEvent (SLE)/totalPrevalenceSensitivitySpecificityPPVNPVPLRNLR
Validation dataset 1 (UHS cohort)
 SLE CvRAGLiver risk factor (alc/DM2/VH)1733/31 9395.930.630.920.330.987.710.40
CRvAG0.720.870.260.985.650.32
CvRAGNo liver risk factors1311/362 3140.370.490.970.051.0014.850.53
CRvAG0.570.940.041.0010.180.46
CvRAGAlcohol1053/10 64210.890.760.870.420.975.910.28
CRvAG0.830.820.350.974.480.21
CvRAGType 2 diabetes649/20 4993.350.480.940.210.987.530.56
CRvAG0.580.890.160.985.500.47
CvRAGViral hepatitis288/189030.000.590.880.680.835.060.47
CRvAG0.720.830.650.874.260.33
 Liver disease or SLE CvRAGLiver risk factor (alc/DM2/VH)4467/31 93913.990.440.920.470.915.360.61
CRvAG0.540.870.410.924.260.52
CvRAGNo liver risk factors5491/362 3141.520.280.970.120.998.460.75
CRvAG0.350.940.090.996.330.69
 Dead CvRAGLiver risk factor (alc/DM2/VH)4638/27 73414.50.360.910.400.893.90.70
CRvAG0.450.860.350.903.20.64
CvRAGNo liver risk factors4612/362 3145.30.240.970.350.969.60.78
CRvAG0.310.950.280.966.80.72
Validation dataset 2 (CHIE cohort)
 SLE CvRAGLiver risk factor (alc/DM2)876/35 8322.540.490.970.290.9915.560.53
CRvAG0.590.930.180.998.620.44
CvRAGNo liver risk factors294/147 2130.200.300.990.041.0021.200.71
CRvAG0.390.970.021.0011.360.63
CvRAGAlcohol636/14 6664.550.560.950.360.9811.570.47
CRvAG0.650.900.250.986.820.38
CvRAGType 2 diabetes441/23 8961.920.410.970.240.9916.350.60
CRvAG0.520.940.150.998.910.51
 Liver disease or SLE CvRAGLiver risk factor (alc/DM2)2259/35 8326.300.280.970.370.958.880.74
CRvAG0.370.930.270.965.400.68
CvRAGNo liver risk factors1985/147 2131.350.100.990.090.997.360.91
CRvAG0.150.970.060.994.410.88
  • Validation dataset 1 (UHS cohort) liver risk factors: any of the following preidentified risk factors for liver disease: alcohol (previous admission with an alcohol ICD code), diabetes (elevated HbA1C or a previous admission with type 2 diabetes), viral hepatitis (HBsAg, HBV DNA or HCV RNA).

  • Validation dataset 2 (CHIE cohort) liver risk factors: any of the following preidentified risk factors for liver disease: alcohol (previous admission with an alcohol ICD code, harmful dependent drinking or an alcohol comorbidity in the primary care record) or diabetes (type 2 diabetes in primary or secondary care records).

  • In each dataset, the control population were patients with no liver admissions.

  • An SLE was defined as a hospital admission with an ICD code for either varices, liver-related ascites or cirrhosis.

  • CHIE, Care and Health Information Exchange; CIRRUS, CIRRhosis Using Standard tests; CRvAG, crimson or red test ‘vs’ amber or green result; CvRAG, crimson test ‘vs’ red, amber or green result; DM2, type 2 diabetes mellitus; NLR, negative likelihood ratio; NPV, negative predictive value; PLR, positive likelihood ratio; PPV, positive predictive value; SLE, serious liver event; UHS, University Hospital Southampton.