Table 2

Results of the linear regression assessing the association between country-level determinants and the daily increase in deaths

Country-level determinantUnivariableMultivariable
Coefficient (95% CI)P valueCoefficient (95% CI)P value
Natural logarithm of population (10 million increase) (2018) 0.432 (0.050 to 0.814) 0.033 0.393 (−0.087 to 0.873)0.103
% population aged 65 years and older0.065 (−0.010 to 0.139)0.097−0.020 (−0.143 to 0.103)0.741
Pollution levels−0.017 (−0.044 to 0.011)0.247−0.005 (−0.031 to 0.020)0.659
Mean emperature (January–May) (2010–2016)−0.031 (−0.078 to 0.017)0.2180.052 (−0.025 to 0.128)0.175
International arrivals (1 million increase)(2018) 0.049 (0.033 to 0.064) <0.001 0.033 (0.012 to 0.054) 0.003
Population density−0.002 (−0.006 to 0.002)0.268−0.001 (−0.004 to 0.002)0.560
Diabetes prevalence (% of population ages 20–79 years) (2019)−0.0031 (−0.189 to 0.126)0.700
Prevalence – neoplasms – sex: Both – age: age standardised (%)(2017) 0.614 (0.209 to 1.019) 0.005 −0.404 (−1.079 to 0.271)0.227
Median BMI0.010 (−0.297 to 0.318)0.947
Prevalent hypertension (%) (2015)0.150 (−0.254 to −0.045) 0.008 −0.107 (−0.249 to 0.035)0.132
Smoking prevalence, 2016 total (ages 15+ years)0.002 (−0.058 to 0.062)0.952
Hospital beds (per 10 000 population)−0.004 (−0.022 to 0.014)0.632
WHO health index (2000)2.259 (−0.920 to 5.439)0.173−2.616 (−6.157 to 0.925)0.140
Population living in urban areas (%)0.023 (−0.011 to 0.580)0.1930.010 (−0.019 to 0.039)0.468
GDP per capita, PPP ($1000 increase) (2018) 0.280 (0.037 to 0.524) 0.030 0.154 (−0.174 to 0.482)0.340
Country-level average daily ambient ultraviolet radiation level – 2004−0.000 (−0.001 to 0.000)0.133−0.001 (−0.001 to 0.000)0.109
Mean % of BCG vaccination coverage among 1-year-old children (1980–2019)0.027 (−0.037 to −0.016) <0.001 0.018 (−0.034 to −0.002) 0.031
Mean daily stringency index−0.036 (−0.072 to 0.001)0.0570.004 (−0.028 to 0.037)0.790
  • R2 for multivariable linear regression=0.8031.

  • The determinants achieving a 30% statistical significance level in univariable analyses (p<0.3) were included in the multivariable model.

  • Statistically significant results (P <0.05) are displayed in bold.

  • BMI, body mass index; GDP, gross domestic product; PPP, purchasing power parity.