Table 5

Performance of the models

	In-hospital mortality			Unfavourable outcome
		Discrimination	Calibration		Discrimination	Calibration
	n	AUC (95% CI)	P value*	N	AUC (95% CI)	P value*
Development data set
Original model	946	0.893 (0.871 to 0.915)	0.957	682	0.897 (0.873 to 0.921)	0.605
Risk score	946	0.890 (0.867 to 912)	0.558	682	0.894 (0.869 to 0.918)	0.587
Internal validation
Original model	946	0.881 (0.858 to 0.901)†	–	682	0.880 (0.868 to 0.909)†	–
Risk score	946	0.889 (0.867 to 0.909)†	–	682	0.893 (0.867 to 0.915)†	–
External validation
Original model	284	0.875 (0.831 to 0.919)	0.391	192	0.893 (0.849 to 0.937)	0.516
Risk score	284	0.871 (0.825 to 0.916)	0.360	192	0.887 (0.842 to 0.932)	0.415

*Hoshmer-Lemeshow test.
†Optimism corrected using bootstrap method.
AUC, the area under the curve.