Table 1

Percentage (and expected number) of active cases under different initial active infection rates and testing strategies

% infectious at beginning of semester	% of student population infectious on campus for each testing strategy (expected no of active cases on campus for N=25 000)
% infectious at beginning of semester	No testing	One NAT test	Two NAT tests
1%	1 (225 cases)	0.1 (23 cases)	0.01 (2 cases)
2%	2 (450 cases)	0.2 (45 cases)	0.02 (5 cases)
5%	5 (1125 cases)	0.5 (113 cases)	0.05 (11 cases)
10%	10 (2250 cases)	1 (225 cases)	0.1 (23 cases)

The (expected) number of active cases are based on a university of size N=25 000 and assumes that 10% of the population is immune (eg, through previous disease exposure). NAT test sensitivity is set at through previous disease exposure). NAT test sensitivity is set at 90%.
NAT, nucleic acid amplification test.